全球半导体行业证据实验室内部报告：英特尔、三星晶圆代工和台积电，谁在领先？

ab23 June 2022Global Research and Evidence LabPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESTSMC remains in the lead for 3nm in 2023-24 In terms of technology capabilities, we think TSMC should maintain its leading position in 3nm through 2023-24, increasing its market share to over 80%, compared with about 75% in 5/7nm. Our 3nm demand analysis (Figure 73nm foundry demand forecasts to Figure 93nm demand by aplication in 2025E ) indicates central processing units (CPU)/ graphics processing units (GPU) would become larger drivers, accounting for 50-60% demand vs 20-30% for 5nm. Intel’s CPU outsourcing presents meaningful upside potential, and possibility of Intel expanding foundry outsourcing to server CPU tiles to 2024. Overall, high-performance computing (HPC) development should drive growth in AMD and Nvidia, and also potential upside in ARM-based CPUs. Our industry survey suggests initial order allocation favours TSMC. Is the leading-edge foundry industry at risk of oversupply? Government subsidies are driving incremental capacity additions in the US and Europe. While TSMC, Samsung and Intel are all benefiting, on balance it might be more material for Intel. Several key customers continue to expand their requirements for leading-edge logic, and hence will likely seek two or more foundry sources over time. That being said, costs matter in customers’ allocation. Our cost analysis indicates the wafer cost in Intel’s 10nm server CPU and 7nm client CPU could be over US$40,000 and US$20,000-40,000, respectively, compared with TSMC’s 5nm wafer price of US$14,000-15,000. The race in gate-all-around (GAA) beyond 3nm As the current transistor structure FinFET is running out of steam, the industry is focused on the transition to GAA. UBS Evidence Lab Patent Tracker (> Access Dataset) shows that TSMC’s GAA IP filings have been much higher than of Samsung Foundry and Intel since 2020. Competition might intensify in 2025 for 2nm as all three companies adopt GAA. Samsung Foundry could have advantage in owning more GAA production data for 2nm after its 3nm trial, with early engagement with large customers. Intel is also accelerating process migration to catch up at 2nm by 2024-25. Stock recommendations We expect TSMC to gain share in advanced foundry in 2023-24 with increasing HPC opportunities. TSMC’s stock is trading around its historical average, which we think reflects cycle concerns, with upside from technology leadership and expanding TAM unlikely in the price. Foundry remains a secondary driver of Samsung’s earnings; we remain positive based on our view of the DRAM cycle, FCF generation, and valuation. Intel's stock should start to reflect better execution and a more aggressive process to close the gap, but with little support from cash flow for the foreseeable future, we remain Neutral. On semiscap, we believe the GAA transition may have similar implications as 3D DRAM with more dollars shifting to etch and deposition. We see the main beneficiaries bein