美股饮料行业-回到未来；对美国饮料的新看法

ab21 June 2022Global Research and Evidence LabPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESBeverages Poised For LT Growth, But This Is Largely Priced InRelative to other Staples sectors, we believe US Beverages will deliver sustainable organic revenue outperformance longer-term, but we see a normalization on the horizon as reopening catalysts dissipate. Our detailed bottom-up framework suggests that growth will become more differentiated across the group looking ahead and with Bevs having outperformed HPC by roughly 15% YTD and trading at a ~20% premium (vs. 5-yr avg. of +13%), we think investors should become selective within the group. Our analysis suggests that KO, PEP, STZ, and CELH will see continue to see higher levels of organic revenue growth vs. peers and as such offer compelling risk/reward. We are moving to the sidelines on TAP, SAM, and KDP as we expect growth to moderate looking ahead. Growth Will Become More Differentiated Across Beverages Beyond '22With the benefit of reopening, organic revenue growth for Beverage peers is outpacing HPC by ~800bps over the past five quarters, allowing the group to mitigate inflationary pressures on a relative basis. The degree to which on-premise occasions have returned to pre-pandemic levels varies by company, but our channel/category analysis suggests that most of this catch-up will be complete by the end of CY22, and we expect investors will focus on companies that can deliver outsized organic revenue growth LT. Channel and trade down risks will be key points of focus moving forward, but we think the defensive nature of the industry will likely limit significant downside vs. what is priced in. Shift In EPS Momentum May Drive Greater Interest In HPCRelative earnings momentum (the seq. change in YoY %EPS growth for HPC - seq. change in YoY %EPS growth for Beverages) has proven to be a meaningful driver of sector performance since the last recession. In fact, positive relative earnings momentum has led to sector outperformance 62% of the time over the last 13 years and 80% over the last 5 years (this year being the outlier, as Beverage companies cycled significant recovery in 2021). Although some patience is required as we think expectations for HPC need to be reset to a degree, we still see the potential for earnings momentum to swing in favor of HPC looking out to '23, which could drive increased interest in the group. Closing Time; Moving TAP/KDP/SAM/ To Neutral From BuyThe return of on-premise has led to outsized growth for TAP, and while we believe in the company's LT strategy, we think moderating growth in '23E will make it difficult for the stock to re-rate. For SAM, we believe weaker-than-expected hard seltzer growth could drive downside to Street estimates. Finally, we view the KDP risk/reward as balanced at current levels and would wait for a more attractive entry point.Figure 1: UBS US Beverage CoverageRatingPrice TargetCY22CY23NTM MultiplesTickerCompanyNew Old New Old UBSe EPSStreet EPSUBSe