全球投资策略-美国是一个新兴奢侈品市场，还是最近的强劲表现只是昙花一现

www.research.hsbc.comDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Play video withErwan RambourgApril 2022By: Erwan Rambourg, Anne-Laure Bismuth and Aurélie Husson-DumoutierWest Side StoriesIs the US an emerging market for luxury orwas the recent outperformance just a blip?Luxury demand in the US over the past 24 months has been impressive as it outperformed other marketsCynics will point to wealth effects – equity and property markets, staycationing benefits, cryptocurrencies, helicopter money and more; dreamers will talk about a new cultural revolution that is spurring a younger and more diverse generation to buy premium goods; we look at both sides of the argument but are clearly in the dreamers’ campWe continue to favor LVMH, Richemont and Watches of Switzerland – we find the latter particularly well placed on the US growth theme; we have Buy ratings on all three as well as on Swatch and Prada; we downgrade Kering to Hold on higher risk at GucciFuture ConsumerEquitiesGlobalThematic research 1 Future Consumer ● Equities April 2022 Future Consumer ● Equities April 2022 2 Executive Summary More than 15 years ago, we argued that the US was an emerging market for luxury, and while the market did well relative to the global average, the outperformance was not as strong as we had thought. However, the question creeps up again today as investors appear to have been stunned by the strength of US demand over the past 24 months. Cynics will point to unsustainable short-term trends and the recent significant wealth creation in a short period of time as the source of the strong demand. Dreamers will note that consumer profiles have changed and that there are many younger generation consumers to be welcomed still. We look at both arguments closely, and we remain more bullish than what we are hearing from investors in general. We continue to favor LVMH, Richemont and Watches of Switzerland, which we find particularly well placed on the US growth theme. We have Buy ratings on all three as well as on Swatch and Prada. We downgrade Kering to Hold on higher risk at Gucci. Wealth creation certainly has played an important role … By most measures, the wealth creation in the post COVID-19 rebound in the US has been quite dramatic. Equity markets have soared as has the property market, notably for secondary homes. Cryptocurrency market has been well supported. Many investors have also pointed to “helicopter money” – government relief payments – but we find it hard to believe these were actually used much to purchase luxury items. All in, wealthy Americans became wealthier and their mood brightened dramatically. There is no denying that this played an important role in luxury’s fortunes as did the benefits of “staycationing” as the world was broadly shut. However, we argue that there were other factors also at play, mainly adapting