全球奢侈品行业-对奢侈品珠宝前景看好，但腕表喜忧参半

www.research.hsbc.comDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Play video withErwan RambourgEquitiesGlobal Luxury GoodsFebruary 2021 By: Erwan Rambourg and Anne-Laure BismuthTime to shineBullish outlook for luxury jewelry,watches more mixedFragmented, female and retail-heavy jewelry segment likely to outperform the luxury sector. Outside of Rolex and a handful of other brands, we are less optimistic about the watch tradeTiffany to shine at LVMH (Buy) though not a transformational deal; Richemont (Buy) more of a pure play on jewelryRetain Hold rating on Swatch despite valuation gap 1 Equities ● Global Luxury Goods February 2021 The LVMH-Tiffany deal is an incentive to rethink the outlook of premium branded jewelry and we think that the future is bright, driven by retail, a surge in female spending and the benefits of a fragmented market. Conversely, the high-end watch category is tougher in terms of growth with private brands (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet) and a few more (Cartier, Omega, Breitling) moving the needle but others likely to see lackluster growth. We have Buy ratings on Richemont and LVMH and a Hold on Swatch Jewelry: reasons to believe the future is brilliant Many macro shifts will prove to be quite supportive to the jewelry category in our view: a change in family structure (later weddings and kids later if ever), greater financial independence of women around the world, and millennials (people born between 1981 and 1996) and Generation Z (born after 1997) rapidly gaining purchasing power and being more inclined to impulse purchasing and self-purchasing than older generations; all of this bodes well for the category. Separately, jewelry is retail-driven, which makes it easier to control brand equity and the space remains very fragmented with leaders Cartier, Tiffany, Bulgari and Van Cleef bound to continue to dominate with some generalist brands (think Louis Vuitton, Chanel) starting to be relevant as well. Overall, we think the pie can grow for many. Some progress has been made on environmental issues, transparency, traceability – and lab-grown diamonds could prove somewhat disruptive – but we are bullish on industry prospects and believe luxury jewelry can see high-single to low double-digit sales growth in a post COVID-19 world. Data from our proprietary HSBC luxury surveys from early 2020 showed that jewelry is a hot item with many of the respondents in mainland China and US ranking jewelry among the top three categories on which they would like to spend more in the coming year. In the US, Tiffany was the most preferred brand, followed by Pandora and then Cartier. In mainland China, Cartier was the most preferred brand, followed by Tiffany and then Bulgari. While Tiffany will be transformational for the watches & jewelry division within LVMH, it won’t be at the group level with c.5%