Possible positive surprise from new platform

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR <GO> OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk 1 MN 30 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/601633 CH) Possible positive surprise from new platform China Auto 12-mth Price Performance Source: FactSet Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 4Q25 revenue and GPM beat our forecast while net profit missed due to the recycling fee reimbursement in Russia. Despite a YoY decline of 1.5ppts amid stiffer competition, FY25 GPM of 18.0% was still resilient among peers, thanks to its improving product mix. We believe such trend could extend into FY26E based on its model pipeline and export target. It appears to us that Great Wall’s scheduled new models are more promising than previous years with its new competitive platform.  4Q25 core net profit in line with our forecast, GPM beat. Great Wall’s revenue in 4Q25 rose 16% YoY to an all-time high of RMB69bn, 9% higher than our prior forecast. GPM in 4Q25 narrowed by 1.2ppts QoQ to 17.3%, or 0.2ppts higher than our projection. Gross profit beat was largely offset by SG&A and R&D expenses in 4Q25. Net profit excluding government grants, VAT refunds and Russia’s recycling fee reimbursement in 4Q25 was about RMB407mn, in line with our forecast.  More competitive pricing with new platform. Management is positive on the new platform, Guiyuan, as it is capable of producing vehicles with different powertrains and a parts sharing ratio of almost 85%. Four new Wey-brand models are scheduled to roll out in FY26E with more competitive pricing aided by cost reduction efforts from the new platform. We revise up FY26E sales volume forecast of Wey brand by 20,000 units to 200,000 units, or doubling from FY25.  Better product mix, rising exports to sustain GPM. Apart from Wey, we also expect exports, especially from the Tank brand (export target of 0.1mn units in FY26E), to lift average selling price (ASP) and uphold GPM. We revise up export volume by 3% to 0.62mn units in FY26E given the current geopolitical dynamics. Accordingly, we project ASP to rise by 1% YoY to RMB171,000 and GPM to widen by 0.1ppts YoY to 18.1% in FY26E.  Earnings/Valuation. We maintain our FY26E sales volume forecast of 1.49mn units but revise up Wey-brand sales volume and exports as noted above. We project FY26E net profit to rise 19% YoY to RMB11.8bn, taking expenses for direct-operated store expansion and reimbursement from Russia into account. We maintain our BUY rating and cut our H-share target price slightly from HK$20.00 to HK$19.00, still based on 12x our revised FY26E P/E. Our A-share target price of RMB26.00 is based on Great Wall's A/H premium of 55%. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volume and margins than our expectation, as well as a sector de-rating. Earnings Summary - 2333 HK (YE 31 Dec) FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E Revenue (RMB m