汽车行业2026年中期策略：出口加速、中高端需求向好、智驾有望迎来拐点

2026/6/712••••3342026上半年复盘：内销持续承压，出口、高端化加速45•图：乘用车月度零售销量（万台）及增速资料来源：公司公告、国金证券研究所-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%050100150200250300M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10 M11 M1220232024202520262026YOY-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05001000150020002500乘用车零售量（万台）YOY（右轴）图：乘用车零售总销量（万台）及增速6•资料来源：交强险、国金证券研究所图：新能源车月度零售销量（万台）及增速图：新能源车年度零售销量（万台）及新能源渗透率-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%020406080100120140M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M1220232024202520262026YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012001400新能源乘用车零售量（万台）新能源渗透率（右轴）7•EV/PHEV车型分别出口73/54万台，同比+96%/+157%，我们认为一方面受到国际油价处于高位催化，中国新能源车优势凸显，另一方面自主品牌新能源车型加速导出，叠加前期渠道、产能、品牌运营等趋于成熟，进入全面收获阶段。图：乘用车出口销量及增速资料来源：乘联会、国金证券研究所图：年乘用车月度出口销量及增速-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0100200300400500600EV出口PHEV出口燃油车出口总出口同比增速0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0102030405060708090M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9 M10 M11 M12202520262026同比8••分车企：各车企出口全面提速，根据乘联会数据，1-4月出口销量贡献较大的车企主要是奇瑞、比亚迪、上汽、吉利、长城，合计贡献约70%份额，其中受益于海外新能源放量以及去年同期低基数，吉利出口实现翻倍以上高增、且出口新能源渗透率从30%提升至62%，奇瑞、比亚迪、上汽也在高基数基础上实现60%以上高增长。图：、年分区域整车出口销量及增速资料来源：崔东树公众号、乘联会、国金证券研究所图：年分车企乘用车出口销量及新能源渗透率巴西, 9%俄罗斯, 8%英国, 5%比利时, 4%澳大利亚, 4%阿联酋, 4%墨西哥, 4%意大利, 3%阿尔及利亚, 2%西班牙, 2%其他, 45%图：年月整车出口主要国家9•资料来源：乘联会、国金证券研究所图：乘用车月度批发销量（万台）及增速图：乘用车批发总销量（万台）及增速-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%050100150200250300350M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9 M10 M11 M1220232024202520262026YOY-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0500100015002000250030003500乘用车批发量（万台）YOY（右轴）10•资料来源：乘联会、国金证券研究所图：新能源车月度批发销量（万台）及增速图：新能源车年度批发销量（万台）及新能源渗透率-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%020406080100120140160180M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9 M10 M11 M1220232024202520262026YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001000120014001600新能源乘用车批发量（万台）新能源渗透率（右轴）11•••资料来源：交强险、国金证券研究所表：年及年月分价格我国乘用车销量、新能源车渗透率及自主份额指标价格带20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026M1-4乘用车分价格带销量（万台）10万以下873.8 824.1 699.6 555.3 406.7 439.6 339.3 287.4 448.5 453.0 96.7 10-20万1146.4 1145.1 1055.5 1085.4 1050.6 1076.6 1083.3 1147.6 1232.4 1202.9 283.8 20-30万156.0 186.1 185.0 206.5 217.1 274.3 305.7 351.2 359.5 376.7 93.5 30-40万64.1 83.0 97.3 93.7 109.5 120.2 128.8 172.1 171.6 178.8 44.5 40-50万58.3 68.3 81.0 94.8 103.4 100.9 103.7 118.3 47.6 41.4 12.1 50万以上4.1 5.8 3.3 4.7 6.6 7.1 12.1 16.6 14.5 18.9 9.5 合计2302.6 2312.2 2121.7 2040.5 1893.8 2018.7 1972.8 2093.1 2274.1 2271.6 540.1 新能源车分价格带渗透率10万以下1.0%2.6%4.1%2.6%6.0%20.1%35.3%41.8%53.5%62.2%47.7%10-20万1.2%2.0%3.8%3.9%4.3%9.2%21.5%29.2%41.1%47.1%41.2%20-30万4.0%3.6%9.2%10.7%10.3%26.6%41.4%48.7%60.4%68.0%66.0%30-40万2.5%1.5%1.9%2.9%12.9%14.7%18.1%42.4%44.7%54.3%50.5%40-50万0.1%0.0%3.3%2.8%1.5%4.5%12.0%19.0%61.2%57.9%54.8%50万以上0.0%0.0%0.2%24.2%57.2%80.9%49.9%29.6%29.1%58.0%76.2%合计1.3%2.1%3.7%3.4%5.1%13.5%26.1%34.7%47.2%54.5%48.3%自主份额10万以下74.6%77.1%75.0%74.8%78.7%82.6%83.9%88.9%81.4%84.4%78.6%10-20万20.0%24.8%26.0%28.0%30.8%38.3%45.6%53.5%60.5%64.3%61.1%20-30万5.8%5.0%10.9%10.3%6.7%14.1%25.1%30.0%38.3%49.3%51.4%30-40万2.6%1.7%1.6%1.8%7.7%17.7%19.4%39.0%44.1%53.0%46.9%40-50万0.0%0.0%1.4%1.0%1.1%2.0%8.7%14.7%61.0%56.7%47.1%50万以上0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.0%11.6%6.0%5.6%20.6%47.9%74.0%合计38.7%40.2%38.8%36.4%35.3%41.5%45.1%50.7%59.7%64.7%61.3%12••资料来源：交强险、国金证券研究所0%10%20%3