替代：2026科技趋势报告

替代：2026科技趋势报告Displacement：2026 Tech Trends Report2026年5月指导单位联合发布《替代：2026科技趋势报告》是替代实验室推出的首份以“替代”为主题的年度研究报告，是一份通往未来科技与产业变革的全景指南。我们认为：创新的背后是替代，替代的本质是“人-机器-环境”关系的重构；创新最终都通往三个目标，即福祉、效率和环保。2026年是“十五五”开局之年，是迈向2035和2050这两个关键年份的重要节点，更是新的全球大周期的重要开端。面对新周期，替代实验室以独创的“替代”理论，为新周期提供新的观察视角，并深入探寻科技变革、产业变革和新质生产力发展背后的规律。新周期富含新机遇，本报告关注4大产业门类的22个前沿行业现状及其未来走向。这些行业基本涵盖了“十五五”规划中的新兴产业和未来产业，是科技创新与产业创新的融合交汇点，是中国面向下一个周期的重要着力点，也是构建新的全球竞争力的重点方向。同时，报告对一级市场和二级市场的最新变化进行洞察，以进一步探索“硬科技”所拥有的可观未来。我们期待这份报告能帮助您准确前瞻下一个新周期的核心要义，紧密把握从全球到中国，从前沿产业到新质生产力的重要先机，为工作和学习提供有价值的参考。欢迎就报告中的内容，和我们一起探讨。本报告由中国国家创新与发展战略研究会创新发展部指导，由替代实验室和资本实验室联合发布。报告作者：冉伟、张珂。前言2Displacement: 2026 Tech Trends Report is the first annual flagship report themed on "Displacement" produced by Displacement Lab, serving as a panoramic guide to future technological and industrial transformation. We hold that innovation is underpinned by displacement, whose essence lies in the restructuring of the relationship between humans, machines, and the environment. Ultimately, all innovations converge on three core goals: well-being, efficiency and environmental sustainability.The year 2026 kicks off China's 15th Five-Year Plan, standing as a pivotal juncture leading to the milestone years of 2035 and 2050, as well as a critical starting point for a new global mega-cycle. Faced with this new cycle, Displacement Lab adopts the original theoretical framework of "Displacement" to deliver a cutting-edge perspective for observation, and delves into the underlying logic of technological revolution, industrial upgrading and the development of new quality productive forces.The new cycle is brimming with emerging opportunities. This report focuses on the current landscape and future trajectory of 22 cutting-edge sectors across four major industrial categories. These sectors largely cover the emerging industries and future industries outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, representing the integration of technological and industrial innovation, the core focus of China's layout for the next cycle, and the key direction for building renewed global competitiveness. In addition, the report offers in-depth insights into the latest dynamics of the primary and secondary capital markets, further exploring the promising prospects of hard technology.We anticipate that this report will enable readers to grasp the core essence of the new cycle, seize critical opportunities spanning global and domestic development, frontier industries and new quality productive forces, and provide valuable references for their work and studies. We welcome in-depth discussions and exchanges on the content of this report.This report was guided by the Innovation and Development Department of the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy (CIIDS), and jointly published by Displacement Lab and Capital Lab.Authors: Ran Wei, Zhang KePreface3目录41新周期——重构中的世界与中国的准备5什么是新周期？What is New Cycle？6…text新周期地缘周期能源周期产业周期经济周期技术周期人口周期⑥地缘周期全球秩序重构与大国领导力的博弈③经济周期全球南方崛起与全球资产配置重构⑤能源周期全球绿色转型与能源资源格局