机械行业2026年中期策略：AI重塑新周期，制造再启新篇章

行业报告：机械行业投资策略2026年5月10 日中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分行业评级：增持机械行业2026年中期策略：AI 重塑新周期，制造再启新篇章股市有风险 入市需谨慎分分分分分分分分分分分分分分S0640524070001◼AI 全链赋能智造，装备迎来全新成长周期。分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 AI 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 AI 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分◼主线一：AI 算力需求高增，AIDC电源开启长周期景气AI 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分AIDC分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分SOFC 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分◼主线二：AI 芯片硬件迭代，PCB 设备/耗材量价持续上行分分分 Rubin分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分CoWop分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 LDI 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 Q 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 PCB分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分PCB分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分◼主线三：大模型赋能具身智能，人形机器人迈入量产落地元年分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分AI 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分2026 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分T 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分T分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分◼风险提示：分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分核心观点前言3◼新架构孕育新周期 ，新变化诞生新机遇 。分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分AI分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分AI分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分AIDC 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分AI分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分PCB 分分分分分分分分分分分PCB 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分AI分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分AI分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分图表：AI自上而下重塑制造业产业逻辑资料来源：英伟达，中航证券研究所分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分LLM 分VLA 分VLM分GPT 分GNN分分分分分分IDC 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分目录一、AIDC发电：AI 算力需求高增，AIDC电源开启长周期景气分分PCB 分分分AI 分分分分分分分PCB 分分/分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分5◼AI算力需求高增，北美云厂商资本开支创历史新高。分分AI分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 分2025 分分分分分分分分分分分 分分分分分Microsoft 分分分分Meta 分分分分分分分分分3150 分分分分分分分分40.37% 分2026分分分分分分分分分6000分分分分分分◼全球AI数据中心（AIDC）电力需求呈指数级增长，中国和美国贡献主要增量。分IEA 分分分2024分分分分分分分分分分分分415TWh分分分分分分分分分分1.5% 分分分2030分分分分945TWh分分分分分分分分分分3% 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分2030分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分80% 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分图表：2025年全球超大规模云服务商资本开支规模达3150 亿美元资料来源：DCPulse，IEA，中航证券研究所图表：2030年全球数据中心电力需求预计达945TWh1.1.1 AIDC 发电：AI算力需求高增，数据中心用电呈指数级增长1.1.2 AIDC 发电：美国电网供应难以匹配算力负荷增速，AIDC自备电源成为必要路径6◼受AIDC负荷高速增长驱动 ，美国电力系统已出现区域性 、结构性用电缺口 。分分分分分分 分DOE 分分分分2023 分分分分分分分分分分分176TWh分分分分分分分分分4.4% 分分分分分分分分分分分分NERC分分分分2027分2030 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分 20GW 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分◼美国电网供应存在瓶颈，AIDC自备电源成为必要路径。分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分2030 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分104GW 分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分22GW 分分分分分 AIDC24× 7分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分图表：2026-2030年美国潜在用电短缺情况资料来源：NERC，中航证券研究所图表：2035年美国电源结构中气电等稳定电源占比下降7◼北美 AIDC 已形成“电网为基础底座、自备燃气电源为主供增量、柴油发电机 + 储能为兜底保障”的三层供电架构。受电网容量饱和、并网周期长等因素驱动，自备燃气电源已不再仅作为备用，而是承担算力负荷增长的核心供电角色。图表：北美AIDC供电架构主要由“电网+自备电源+备用电源”三层组成资料来源：中航证券研究所基础供电层：公共电网✓分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分主供增量层：自备燃气电源（核心新增）✓分分分分分分分/分分/分分分分分分分分分分分AIDC 分分✓分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分分✓SOFC 分分分分分