PitchBook分析师注：主权人工智能：万亿美元的前沿（英）

1PitchBook Data, Inc.Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President of Research and Market IntelligencePaul Condra Global Head of Private Markets ResearchJames Ulan Director of Emerging Technology ResearchInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisDimitri Zabelin Senior Research Analyst, AI and Cybersecurity dimitri.zabelin@pitchbook.comDataOscar Allaway Data analystOwen Walker Internpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comPublishingDesigned by Jenna O’MalleyPublished on October 27, 2025ContentsEMERGING TECH RESEARCHSovereign AI: The Trillion-Dollar FrontierPitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most accurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets.Executive summaryThis report provides a comprehensive analysis of the sovereign AI market, a defining technological and geopolitical trend of the mid-2020s. We assess that the pursuit of national autonomy in artificial intelligence is no longer a niche policy objective but the central pillar of economic and national security strategy for developed and emerging nations alike. This shift is catalyzing a historic, multitrillion-dollar redirection of state-backed capital into the AI technology stack, creating a durable, long-term investment super-cycle. Our analysis indicates that this market is not monolithic; it is bifurcating into two distinct, competing ecosystems led by the US and China, compelling other nations to make strategic alignment choices that will dictate capital flows and technological standards for the next decade.The primary driver of this trend is an intensifying global rivalry, compelling governments to secure their own computational infrastructure, data, and AI models to avoid dependency on nondomestic powers. This imperative is creating unprecedented demand guarantees for companies across the AI value chain. We have identified four critical layers for investment:1. Semiconductors, where US export controls are creating a protected market for domestic Chinese players and a premium for Western-aligned suppliers.2. Infrastructure, where sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in the Middle East and state-backed consortia are underwriting hyperscale datacenter build-outs, de-risking growth for the entire supply chain from power and cooling to interconnects.3. Foundation models, where capital is concentrating in a few US-based leaders who are becoming quasi-sovereign entities through deep partnerships with allied nations.4. Applications, a nascent but high-potential area where sovereign-specific use cases in defense, healthcare, and public services will emerge.For investors, the sovereign AI landscape offers generational opportunities but is fraught with geopolitical risk. The US ecosystem, anchored by legislative support like the CHIPS and Science Act and corporate champions like NVIDIA and OpenAI, remains the dominant destination for private capital due to its transparency and Executive summary 1Sovereign AI 2The infrastructure super-cycle 4The