2025年能源展望

bp Energy Outlook2025 edition23bp Energy Outlook: 2025 editionbp Energy Outlook: 2025 editionThis year’s Energy Outlook is focused on two main scenarios: Current Trajectory and Below 2°. The scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition. The scenarios are based on existing technologies and do not consider the possible impact of new or unknown technologies or applications.The many uncertainties surrounding the possible speed and nature of the energy transition, as well as the many other factors shaping the energy system, mean the probability of either one of the scenarios materialising exactly as described is negligible.Moreover, the two scenarios do not provide a comprehensive description of all possible outcomes. They do, however, span a wide range of possible outcomes and so might help to illustrate the key trends and uncertainties surrounding the possible development of energy markets out to 2050.The Outlook is produced to inform bp’s views of the risks and opportunities posed by the energy transition and is published to help share those views with bp’s stakeholders and as a contribution to the wider debate about the factors shaping the future path of the global energy system. But the Outlook is only one source among many when considering the prospects for global energy markets, and bp considers a wide range of other external scenarios, analysis and information when forming its long-term strategy.45bp Energy Outlook: 2025 editionbp Energy Outlook: 2025 editionContentsPower sector 50Electricity demand 52Electricity’s share of total final consumption 54Electricity generation 56Nuclear generation 58Power sector emissions 60Low carbon hydrogen and carbon mitigation and removals 62Low carbon hydrogen demand and CCUS 64Low carbon hydrogen production 66Sensitivities 68Three key issues affecting the energy transition 70Increased geopolitical fragmentation 72 Impact on emissions and primary energy 74 Regional primary energy impacts 76Sustained weakness in energy efficiency 78 Impact on oil and natural gas demand 80Cumulative emissions: Current Trajectory and Below 2° 82 Delayed and disorderly 84Comparing the three sensitivities 86Annex 88Summary data table 90From Current Trajectory to Below 2° 92Energy addition and energy substitution 94Modelling approach for Increased geopolitical fragmentation 96Modelling approach for Weak energy efficiency 98Modelling approach for Delayed Below 2° 100Economic impact of climate change 102Carbon emissions definitions and sources 104Other data definitions and sources 106Introduction 6Welcome to Energy Outlook 2025 6Recent developments and emerging trends 8Key insights 10Overview 12Two scenarios: Current Trajectory and Below 2° 14Decomposition by region and by sector 16Growth of primary energy 18Primary energy by fuel 20Total final consum