Deutsche Bank-Fed Notes October FOMC survey results-118505839

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 27/10/2025 19:26:28 GMTDistributed on: 27/10/2025 19:26:28 GMTDeutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. Economics Fed Notes Date 27 October 2025 October FOMC survey results This note summarizes responses to our pre-FOMC investor survey. The objective of the survey is to understand expectations for the meeting and how financial markets and market expectations are likely to respond to various potential outcomes. Responses to this survey were submitted between Tuesday 10/21 and Friday 10/24. Background on respondents (Figures 1-3) • There were 52 respondents (though not all answered every question). • Most respondents are based in the US (56%) or Europe (33%). • The overwhelming majority have a fixed-income (53%) or multi-asset (31%) focus; the rest are in equities or FX. • 63% are risk-takers, either as a portfolio manager or trader. Figure 1: Geographic distribution of respondents Source: Deutsche Bank Research Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D. Chief US Economist +1-212-250-6161 Matthew Raskin Strategist +1-212-250-1741 Amy Yang Economist +1-212-250-9959 27 October 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 2 Figure 2: Asset class breakdown of respondents Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 3: Role of respondents: over half are risk-takers Source: Deutsche Bank Research Expectations for policy at this week’s meeting (Figures 4-9) • Respondents attach an average probability of 89% to a 25bp rate cut at this week’s meeting. This average is broadly similar across respondents in different roles (i.e., PM, trader, research, etc.), though risk-takers and research roles have slightly more confidence in a 25bps cut. • A significant majority (71%) expect Chair Powell in his press conference to sound neutral relative to market expectations; the remainder skew towards Powell sounding hawkish. • Overall, respondents attach a 45% probability to an end to QT being announced at the December meeting; the next most likely outcome was 27 October 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 an October announcement (33%). Risk-takers put somewhat more probability on an October than December announcement. • If QT is announced in October, most respondents expect it to lead to a small decline in the 10-year yield (0 to -2bps most common response). Figure 4: Rate expectations for the meeting: 89% average probability assigned to 25bp cut, ~7% probability to 50bp Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 5: Risk takers (PMs and traders) somewhat more confident about a 25bp rate cut in October Source: Deutsche Bank Research 27 October 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 4 Figure 6: A significant majority expect a neutral tone from Powell Sou