军工行业25年三季报业绩综述：景气持续恢复，关注军贸和新质战斗力方向

2025/11/112资料来源：Wind，国金证券研究所3军工行业整体：25Q3业绩增速转正，备货备产景气持续45资料来源：Wind，国金证券研究所30/09/2025同比25Q3同比环比营收4,181 4.7%1,556 24.6%-1.6%归母净利润225 -15.9%74 22.3%-24.9%毛利率20.0%-0.9pct18.7%-2.0pct-1.7pct净利率5.4%-1.3pct4.8%-0.1pct-1.5pct期间费用率13.2%-0.1pct12.8%-2.3pct0.8pct3,043 3,442 3,825 3,993 4,181 304 341 348 267 225 13.1%11.1%4.4%4.7%12.1%2.1%-23.3%-15.9%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,5002021/9/30 2022/9/30 2023/9/30 2024/9/30 2025/9/30营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收YoY归母净利YoY24.2%24.4%24.0%20.9%20.0%10.0%9.9%9.1%6.7%5.4%12.6%12.4%13.4%13.3% 13.2%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2021/9/30 2022/9/30 2023/9/30 2024/9/30 2025/9/30毛利率净利率期间费用率6单位：亿元30/09/202530/06/2025较上一季度末增长31/12/2024较年初增长合同负债606 681 -11.0%557 8.9%预付款项823 743 10.7%568 44.8%存货3,019 2,936 2.8%2,672 13.0%在建工程422 384 10.0%352 20.1%固定资产2,213 2,221 -0.4%2,170 2.0%应收款项4,073 3,829 6.4%3,582 13.7%25Q1-Q3同比25Q3同比环比资本性支出350 16.0%131 27.6%11.5%25Q1-Q3去年同期25Q3去年同期上一季度经营性净现金流-420 -894 -12 -235 -304 资料来源：Wind，国金证券研究所-303 -145 742 -432 -128 -235 621 -125 -304 -12 91 101 173 105 94 103 168 102 118 131 -600 -400 -200 - 200 400 600 800 1,00023Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3经营性净现金流（亿元）资本性支出（亿元）66 58 46 88 60 52 58 80 62 70 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10023Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3支付税费（亿元）分赛道：兵器、舰船、电子信息化延续高增，航空、航天边际改善725Q1-Q325Q3营业收入同比归母净利润同比营收同比 归母净利润同比电子信息化714 12.2%50.636.1%23.2%254.5%航空2,521 0.6%151.9-24.8%28.1%-5.8%航天665 10.7%13.9-32.7%21.0%22.0%兵器212 15.5%5.510.5%9.4%62.2%舰船69 2.1%2.719.0%-7.5%60.3%8资料来源：Wind，各公司公告，国金证券研究所++25Q1-Q325Q3毛利率同比净利率同比期间费用率同比毛利率同比净利率同比 期间费用率同比电子信息化41.4% +0.4pct7.1%+1.2pct32.4%-1.6pct+1.4pct+5.2pct-4.1pct航空16.6% -1.2pct6.0%-2.0pct8.9%+0.3pct-3.3pct-1.7pct-1.8pct航天10.1% -2.3pct2.1%-1.3pct7.8%-1.5pct-1.2pct+0.02pct-2.0pct兵器18.1% -0.5pct2.6%-0.1pct15.6%-1.5pct+0.8pct+0.7pct-1.2pct舰船22.3% -2.3pct3.9%+0.6pct18.1%-1.4pct-1.2pct+1.2pct-0.5pct92025/9/30合同负债较年初增长预付款项较年初增长存货较年初增长在建工程较年初增长固定资产较年初增长应收款项较年初增长电子信息化85.1 16.0%89.0 32.5%509.6 14.1%122.9 37.9%451.4 -0.5%960.9 7.8%航空419.6 5.9%577.8 60.7%1,971.6 12.9%238.6 15.5%1,331.8 3.3%2,503.5 13.7%航天53.7 7.3%84.3 -3.9%358.0 8.0%35.3 0.1%255.3 2.4%315.0 40.8%兵器40.0 30.1%49.2 43.8%121.8 26.0%18.7 20.7%138.9 -1.2%184.1 15.2%舰船7.8 18.8%22.5 14.0%57.7 12.3%6.8 30.1%36.1 -3.9%109.1 3.7%资料来源：Wind，国金证券研究所资本性支出经营性净现金流25Q1-Q3同比25Q3同比25Q1-Q324Q1-Q325Q324Q3电子信息化141.9 49.5%59.6 94.3%-6.8 -21.6 0.3 -3.9 航空166.8 -2.9%57.8 -6.0%-328.5 -719.7 -6.0 -196.3 航天24.8 29.5%7.9 36.5%-47.0 -65.9 -4.1 -5.3 兵器13.7 12.9%4.6 20.4%-34.8 -79.4 -1.3 -25.8 舰船3.1 -20.8%1.1 20.4%-2.7 -7.3 -1.0 -3.6 产业链：各环节业绩表现改善，合同负债增加开启新一轮景气周期1011，25Q1-Q3营收营收同比 归母净利润 归母净利润同比上游1,223 10.0%95.1 -13.3%中游1,271 7.8%70.7 -3.4%下游1,687 -0.9%58.7 -30.2%25Q3营收同比 营收环比 归母净利润同比归母净利润环比上游10.1%-5.8%-5.9%-33.8%中游12.3%-11.3%46.0%-22.1%下游45.7%8.3%55.4%-13.0%25Q1-Q3毛利率毛利率同比净利率净利率同比期间费用率期间费用率同比上游23.1%-1.7pct7.8%-2.1pct13.7%0.1pct中游30.3%-0.8pct5.6%-0.6pct22.6%-0.8pct下游9.9%-1.3pct3.5%-1.5pct5.8%-0.3pct25Q3毛利率同比毛利率环比净利率同比净利率环比期间