石化行业25年三季度总结：龙头业绩符合预期，反内卷背景下盈利将改善

2025/11/11①“反内卷”背景下，石化中下游细分行业盈利或有改善。②上游板块具备较高股息率，持续推进增储上产与降本增效。③海上油气行业高景气度，业绩稳步增长。3市场行情45资料来源： Wind，国金证券研究所20.7%2.8%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%6资料来源： Wind，国金证券研究所-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2025/1/12025/2/12025/3/12025/4/12025/5/12025/6/12025/7/12025/8/12025/9/12025/10/1油气资源指数石油天然气指数油气开采服务指数炼油化工指数聚酯指数烯烃指数分板块概述78资料来源：EIA，Wind，国金证券研究所1000105011001150120012501300135014001月2月 3月4月5月6月7月8月9月 10月 11月 12月20252024202320222021-4-3-2-101234580859095100105110库存变化（右轴）总供给总需求66.9 74.4 75.2 67.9 63.3 69.0 62.2 63.3 50.2 29.7 43.1 44.3 61.2 69.1 73.7 79.9 102.4 114.1 101.0 89.0 81.3 78.2 86.9 84.5 83.4 85.2 80.5 74.9 75.8 68.0 69.3 020406080100120布伦特原油季度均价（美元/桶）从油公司常用的PV-10油气储量估值来看，9资料来源：Bloomberg， Wind，国金证券研究所代码名称P/E 2024P/E 2025P/E 2026EV/EBITDA2024EV/EBITDA2025EV/EBITDA2026PBCOP US Equity康菲石油11.1913.7413.775.495.025.241.65OXY US Equity西方石油12.0518.5222.995.295.425.941.47DVN US Equity戴文能源6.658.047.853.733.743.801.35PXD US Equity先锋能源12.9811.2012.037.156.256.592.67EOG US EquityEOG资源9.0910.569.894.464.754.431.98ONGC IN Equity印度油气5.607.127.874.515.425.240.93PETR4 BZ Equity巴西石油6.953.694.443.043.133.100.96PTTEP TB Equity泰国国家能源6.017.067.382.052.232.190.83OMV AV Equity奥地利OMV6.589.438.823.544.034.261.10纯油气标的平均8.579.9310.564.364.444.531.44XOM US Equity埃克森美孚14.7716.8315.397.977.547.171.87CVX US Equity雪佛龙18.4121.2218.729.118.377.491.82TTE FP Equity道达尔集团7.849.108.934.214.704.801.22BP/ LN EquityBP公司12.5212.5011.994.794.264.341.52SHEL LN Equity壳牌9.9111.7011.484.254.754.911.23ENI IM Equity埃尼11.4510.3510.294.424.334.331.02EQNR NO Equity挪威石油7.938.698.291.661.741.881.48REP SM Equity西班牙雷普索尔8.586.846.485.093.803.740.85ARAMCO AB Equity沙特阿美15.4917.1616.887.378.027.934.22综合性油公司平均11.8812.7112.055.435.285.181.69COP US Equity康菲石油11.1913.7413.775.495.025.241.65OXY US Equity西方石油12.0518.5222.995.295.425.941.47DVN US Equity戴文能源6.658.047.853.733.743.801.35PXD US Equity先锋能源12.9811.2012.037.156.256.592.67EOG US EquityEOG资源9.0910.569.894.464.754.431.98XOM US Equity埃克森美孚14.7716.8315.397.977.547.171.87CVX US Equity雪佛龙18.4121.2218.729.118.377.491.82美国上市油公司平均12.1614.3014.386.175.875.811.83TTE FP Equity道达尔集团7.849.108.934.214.704.801.22BP/ LN EquityBP公司12.5212.5011.994.794.264.341.52SHEL LN Equity壳牌9.9111.7011.484.254.754.911.23ENI IM Equity埃尼11.4510.3510.294.424.334.331.02EQNR NO Equity挪威石油7.938.698.291.661.741.881.48OMV AV Equity奥地利OMV6.589.438.823.544.034.261.10REP SM Equity西班牙雷普索尔8.586.846.485.093.803.740.85欧洲上市油公司平均9.269.809.474.003.944.031.20600938.SH中国海油9.379.619.404.224.384.291.78600028.SH中国石化13.4014.9513.156.126.315.850.82601857.SH中国石油10.1310.159.823.964.704.521.10平均10.9711.5710.794.775.134.891.23883 HK Equity中国海洋石油6.276.446.302.602.702.641.19386 HK Equity中国石油化工9.2710.359.105.055.214.830.57857 HK Equity中国石油股份8.118.127.853.273.883.740.88平均7.888.307.753.643.933.740.88纯油气标的综合性油公司美国上市油公司平均欧洲上市油公司平均三桶油A股三桶油H股FY 2013FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024至今康菲石油1.321.243.157.113.091.862.296.941.911.572.152.081.79西方石油2.652.174.986.393