IMF-老龄化和人工智能对日本劳动力市场的影响：挑战与机遇（英）

The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, and TengTeng Xu WP/25/184 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP * “The author(s) would like to thank” footnote, as applicable.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/184IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities Prepared by Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, and TengTeng Xu* Authorized for distribution by Nada Choueiri September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper explores the complex roles of demographic changes and technological innovation in shaping Japan's labor market. We use regression analysis to assess the impact of population aging on labor productivity and shortages. Our findings indicate that the aging workforce contributes to labor shortages and potentially weighs on labor productivity. We also investigate occupational level data to identify the complementarity and substitutability of AI in occupational tasks as well as skill transferability. Our research reveals that Japanese workers face lower exposure to AI compared to their counterparts in other advanced economies, thereby constraining AI's potential to mitigate labor shortages. Furthermore, the disparities in skill requirements across occupations with different AI exposures highlight the importance of facilitating labor mobility from displaced jobs to those in demand. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Asao, K., Seitani, H., Stepanyan, A., and Xu, T. 2025. The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities. IMF Working Paper WP/25/184. Washington D.C. JEL Classification Numbers: J11; J62; O33 Keywords: Population aging; labor market; artificial intelligence; skill transferability Author’s E-Mail Address: KAsao@imf.org; HSeitani@imf.org; AStepanyan@imf.org; TXu@imf.org WORKING PAPERS The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities Prepared by Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, and TengTeng Xu1 1 The authors would like to thank Yan Carriere-Swallow and participants at a Japan Ministry of Finance Seminar for their very valuable comments. The authors thank Qin Lin for her excellent research assistance during the preparation of the working paper. IMF WORKING PAPERS Title of WP INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents I. Introduction ...............................................