国际清算银行-稳定币和安全资产价格（英）

BIS Working PapersNo 1270 Stablecoins and safe asset prices Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro Monetary and Economic Department May 2025 JEL classification: E42, E43, G12, G23 Keywords: stablecoins, Treasury securities, money market funds, safe assets BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Stablecoins and safe asset prices*Rashad AhmedI˜naki AldasoroMay 2025AbstractThis paper examines the impact of dollar-backed stablecoin flows on short-term US Treasury yields using daily data from 2021 to 2025. Estimatesfrom instrumented local projection regressions suggest that a 2-standarddeviation inflow into stablecoins lowers 3-month Treasury yields by 2-2.5basis points within 10 days, with limited to no spillover effects on longertenors. We also find evidence of asymmetric effects: stablecoin outflowsraise yields by two to three times as much as inflows lower them. De-composing the yield impact by issuer shows that USDT (Tether) has thelargest contribution followed by USDC (Circle), consistent with their rela-tive size. Our results highlight stablecoins’ growing footprint in safe assetmarkets, with implications for monetary policy transmission, stablecoinreserve transparency, and financial stability.JEL classification: E42, E43, G12, G23.Keywords: stablecoins, Treasury securities, money market funds, safe assets.*Rashad Ahmed: r.ahmed.econ@gmail.com; I˜naki Aldasoro: Bank for International Settle-ments, inaki.aldasoro@bis.org (corresponding author). We thank Giulio Cornelli, Jon Frost,Ulf Lewrick and participants at a BIS seminar for helpful comments and suggestions. Theviews expressed here are those of the authors only and not necessarily those of the Bank forInternational Settlements.11IntroductionDollar-backed stablecoins have seen remarkable growth and are poised to re-shape financial markets. As of March 2025, the combined assets under man-agement of these cryptocurrencies promising par convertibility to the US dol-lar and backed by dollar-denominated assets exceeded $200 billion (B), sur-passing the short-term US securities holdings of major foreign investors likeChina (Figure 1, left-panel). Stablecoin issuers, notably Tether (USDT) andCircle (USDC), back their tokens primarily with US Treasury bills (T-bills) andmoney market instruments, positioning them as significant players in short-term debt markets.1 Indeed, dollar-backed stablecoins purch