世界银行-税收和转移支付对巴基斯坦不平等和贫困的影响（英）

The Effects of Taxes and Transfers on Inequality and Poverty in Pakistan Beenish Amjad Haydeeliz Carassco Moritz Meyer Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized The Effects of Taxes and Transfers on Inequality and Poverty in Pakistan1 Beenish Amjad Haydeeliz Carrasco Moritz Meyer The World Bank Group The World Bank Group The World Bank Group This version: January 19, 2025 Abstract. This study assesses the impact of fiscal policy in Pakistan - taxes, social expenditures, and subsidy expenditures - on poverty and inequality using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Methodology. Results show that fiscal policy increased the national poverty headcount and left inequality largely unchanged during fiscal year 2019 (spanning July 1, 2018, to June 30, 2019). The net effect of the fiscal system is to increase the poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty line by approximately two percentage points. Overall, the combination of direct and indirect taxes paid, cash or near-cash transfers received, and subsidy benefits captured leaves most households as net payers into the fiscal system; only the poorest decile are net recipients in cash terms from the fiscal system. Taxes, transfers, and subsidies have a muted impact on inequality: the Gini coefficient index falls from 29.0 to 28.6 from pre-fiscal to post-fiscal income. The most effective expenditure-side instrument for either poverty or inequality reduction is the BISP social protection program; the revenue-side instruments that shield poor and vulnerable households most effectively are the personal income tax and the urban property tax. The revenue-side instrument most effective at reducing inequality is the personal income tax. Indirect taxes and subsidy expenditures – which are far larger in fiscal magnitude than direct taxes or social transfers (respectively) in Pakistan in fiscal year 2019 – are not particularly effective at reducing poverty or inequality. In-kind transfers of public health and education services also have an insignificant impact on inequality. Keywords: fiscal policy, social expenditure, taxes, fiscal incidence, inequality, poverty, Pakistan JEL classification: H22, I38, D31 1 Beenish Amjad and Haydeeliz Carrasco are Economics Consultants in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice at the World Bank; and Moritz Meyer (corresponding author: mmeyer3@worldbank.org) is Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice at the World Bank. We declare that we have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group or any affiliated organizations, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Acknowledgem