IMF-估算尼日尔的潜在产出：尼日尔（英）

Estimating Potential Output in Niger Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) SIP/2025/041IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 17, 2024. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/26. 2025 APR © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/041 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Estimating Potential Output in Niger Prepared by Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) Authorized for distribution by Antonio David. April 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 17, 2024. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/26. ABSTRACT: Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital. Growth in Niger is, however, constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and inadequate economic diversification, with downside risks stemming mainly from regional insecurity and adverse climate shocks. Key factors that could boost economic growth in Niger include investment in human capital, the development of the extractive sector and agro-industrial value chains and the diffusion of digital technologies. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Amouzou Agbe Guy Morel Kossivi. 2025. “Estimating Potential Output in Niger”, IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/041). Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund JEL Classification Numbers: C13, E23, E66, O11 Keywords: Economic Growth, Potential output, Output gap, Statistical filters, Production function, Growth decomposition. Author’s E-Mail Address: GAmouzou@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Estimating Potential Output in Niger Prepared by Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) 1 1 Prepared by Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR). I am grateful to Antonio David, Annalisa Fedelino and Élisée Miningou for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am also thankful to Chris Stumphius and Joanna Delcambre for their editorial assistance. NIGER SELECTED ISSUES Approved By The African Department Prepared By Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) ESTIMATING POTENTIAL OUTPUT IN NIGER ________________________________________ 2 A. Motivation and Background _________________________________________________________ 2 B. Sectoral Growth Trends and Contributions to Growth _______________________________ 3 C. Potential Output and Output Gap Estimations _______________________________________ 5 D. Downside Risks to Growth __________________________________________________________ 12 E. Policy Options and Conclusions _____________________________________________________ 13 FIGURES 1. Contributions to Real GDP Gr