NBER-流动性冲击与企业出口：货币停用期间现金短缺的证据

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIESLIQUIDITY SHOCKS AND FIRM EXPORTS:EVIDENCE FROM CASH SHORTAGES DURING INDIA'S DEMONETIZATIONRitam ChaureyRyan KimPravin KrishnaWorking Paper 33142http://www.nber.org/papers/w33142NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, MA 02138November 2024, Revised December 2024We thank Shekhar Aiyar, Borağan Aruoba, Shoumitro Chatterjee, Thomas Drechsel, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Amartya Lahiri, Prachi Mishra, Nagpurnanand Prabhala, Raghuram G. Rajan, Alessandro Rebucci, Mine Senses, Amit Seru, Tom Zylkin, and seminar and conference participants at ABFER - Singapore, American University, Bank of Finland, George Mason University, George Washington University, HKU, HKUST, Keio University, KIEP, IMF, International Macro/Finance/Trade Conference, ISB-NBER, ISI-Delhi, Johns Hopkins SAIS, Seoul National University, and Spatial Econ/Trade Conference at NYU for valuable comments and suggestions. Ryan Kim gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research. This paper represents the views of the author(s), which are not necessarily those of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong Academy of Finance Limited, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. The above-mentioned entities, except the author(s), take no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions in the paper. Jing Wu, Seung Yong Yoo, and Ankit Bhatia provided superb research assistance. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.© 2024 by Ritam Chaurey, Ryan Kim, and Pravin Krishna. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.Liquidity Shocks and Firm Exports: Evidence from Cash Shortages during India's Demonetization Ritam Chaurey, Ryan Kim, and Pravin KrishnaNBER Working Paper No. 33142November 2024, Revised December 2024JEL No. E50, F1, F14, O16ABSTRACTThis paper examines how liquidity shocks caused by currency shortages impact exports. We explore this in the context of India’s 2016 currency demonetization, a sudden government policy announcement that led to 86% of the country’s currency in circulation being rendered illegal within hours. Our analysis uses novel data, including high-frequency customs transaction records matched with exporting firms and their balance sheets, as well as with inter-district domestic trade. While the cash shortages do not directly affect exporting firms, we find a significant and immediate decline in real exports for firms whose domestic customers experience liquidity shocks.Ritam ChaureySchool of Advanced International StudiesJohns Hopkins University555 Pennsylvania Avenue NWWashington, DC 20001rchau