UBS Economics-China Economic Comment _October export growth jumped ahead o...-111423913

ab7 November 2024Global ResearchChina Economic CommentOctober export growth jumped ahead of consensusLower base and compensational shipment might have helped Export growth accelerated to 12.7%y/y in October from 2.4% in September, well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus of 5.0%. Import dropped back to 2.3%y/y contraction vs. prior growth of 0.3% but largely in line with the Bloomberg consensus. Trade balance expanded to USD 96bn from USD 82bn.Sequentially, our estimation shows export level turned to 3.3%m/m expansion from prior contraction after adjusting for seasonality and moving holiday effect. Export momentum also improved to 0.1% (3m/3m) expansion from contraction in September. In real terms, we estimate export growth edged up to 16.4%y/y from 6.8%. That of imports dropped to y/y contraction of 1.0% in October (vs. prior of +0.7%). The September export number was reportedly dragged by the typhoon. Normalization away from disruptions might have helped to push up the export level in October, working together with the low statistical base to yield the positive surprise in headline trade growth. Indeed, details show that exports to Japan and Korea, whose shipping routes were impacted more by the typhoon, registered particularly large positive swings from September to October. Shipments to Japan and Korea recorded biggest upswings Export growth to the G3 improved to 8.9% from 1.2%y/y. Shipment growth to the US geared up to 7.6% from 2.2%, those to the EU improved too thanks to the lower base. Export growth to Japan showed a particularly large upswing from 7.2%y/y contraction in September to 7.6%y/y growth in October – the highest growth since April 2023. Shipments to Korea also bounced to fastest y/y growth in 19 months in October, from large y/y contraction. Shipping routes to Japan and Korea were impacted more by the typhoon, such large swings suggest significant typhoon disruptions in recent export data points. Export growth to ASEAN finally picked up to 16.0%y/y (vs. prior of 7.3%), after four consecutive months of growth deceleration. Export growth to the BRI economies, Latin America and Africa all accelerated. Export growth accelerated across IT and consumer goods baskets Shipment revenue, volume as well as unit price of mobile phones expanded further on a sequential basis, reflecting the delivery of new products ahead of holiday season. However, mobile phone exports remained in y/y contraction given the high base. Computers and IC export growth both improved too. Export growth of the IT basket accelerated to 9.2% from 1.1%. Consumer goods exports finally returned to 8.5%y/y growth, thanks to a much lower base in the month. Auto and parts export growth moderated. Details have not shown export front-loadings to the US so far Export details so far do not suggest significant front loadings of exports to the US despite the earlier US interest rate cuts and October was only a month ahead of the US election. Given the US election outcome and the

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2024-11-18
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