UBS Economics-China Economic Comment _Data preview Better home sales, imp...-111327972
ab5 November 2024Global ResearchChina Economic CommentData preview: Better home sales, improved YoY growth in OctoberHigh frequency: Property sales picked up, PMIs and activity growth improvedNBS manufacturing PMI improved by 0.3ppt to 50.1 in October, and Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up by 1ppt to 50.3, both with better new orders and production index. NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up by 0.2ppt to 50.2. High frequency data showed that 30-city property sales narrowed decline to -4% YoY in October (vs -34% YoY in September) and top 100 developers’ contract sales volumes rebounded to 11% YoY from -40% YoY previously. Port cargo throughput and container throughput growth both picked up. Steel production growth narrowed decline and FTL traffic index rebounded. Meanwhile, auto retail sales and wholesales growth both improved thanks to ongoing trade-in subsidies. See our UBS China Activity Tracker and the Appendix High Frequency Data Monitor for more details.October data preview: Better home sales, improved YoY growthFor the upcoming October data release, we expect property sales growth to have turned positive YoY (1-3% YoY) and new starts likely narrowed YoY decline, with both seeing higher seasonally adjusted levels than September. We expect better overall FAI growth with robust infrastructure and manufacturing FAI growth but continued contraction in property investment, slightly faster retail sales growth (3.5% YoY), stronger export growth (6% YoY), and largely stable industrial production growth (5.4% YoY) in October. Credit growth likely edged down to 7.9% YoY. CPI inflation likely stabilised (0.4% YoY), while PPI likely narrowed decline (-2.4% YoY). Figure 1: China data preview - October 2024Source: CEIC, UBS estimates. Note: IP, property, FAI, retail sales data on 15 Nov; trade data on 7 Nov; CPI and PPI data on 9 Nov; money & credit data on 10-15 Nov.This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 10. EconomicsChinaNing ZhangEconomist ning.zhang@ubs.com +852-2971 8135Grace WangEconomistS1460524050003 grace-zc.wang@ubs.com +86-105-832 8335Jennifer ZhongEconomistS1460516050002 jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com +86-105-832 8324William DengEconomist william-w.deng@ubs.com +852-2971 6765Tao WangEconomist wang.tao@ubs.com +852-2971 7525 China Economic Comment 5 November 2024ab 2PMIs and high frequency data update October NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMI both improved. NBS manufacturing PMI improved by 0.3ppt to 50.1 in October, the first time back to >50 reading since May 2024. New order edged up by 0.1ppt to 50,while production picked up by 0.8ppt to 52, likely suggesting improved growth momentum of the manufacturing sector. New export orders edged down by 0.2ppt to 47.3, while import improved by 0.9ppt to 47. Raw material inventory turned less bad by 0.5ppt to 48.2, quantity of purchase improve
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