2024年10月亚太地区经济展望分析报告（英）

ASIA AND PACIFICREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKResilient Growth but Higher Risks2024NOVINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDResilient Growth but Higher Risks2024NOVASIA AND PACIFICREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDCopyright ©2024 International Monetary FundCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund, publisher.Title: Regional economic outlook. Asia and Pacific : resilient growth but higher risks.Other titles: Asia and Pacific : resilient growth but higher risks. | Resilient growth but higher risks. | Regional economic outlook: Asia and Pacific.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2024. | Nov. 2024. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN: 9798400287220 (paper) 9798400292118 (ePub) 9798400292095 (Web PDF)Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting—Asia. | Economic forecasting—Pacific Area. | Asia—Economic conditions. | Pacific Area—Economic conditions. | Economic development—Asia. | Economic development—Pacific Area.Classification: LCC HC412.R44 2024The Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific is published once a year, in the fall, to review developments in Asia and the Pacific. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (USA)T. +(1) 202.623.7430F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.orgwww.IMFbookstore.orgwww.elibrary.IMF.orgContentsAcknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................................................... . . . . . . . vDefinitions ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................................................... . . . . . . viExecutive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................................................................... . . . . . viiOutlook for Asia and the Pacific: Resilient Growth but Higher Risks .......................................... . . . . . . 1Recent Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ 1The Outlook: Resilient Growth in a Challenging Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... 6Risks: Tilted to the Downside . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ 8Macroeconomic Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 10References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .