世界银行-2023年前的政府卫生支出趋势：峰值、下降和不断增加的风险（英）

1 2 Government Health Spending Trends Through 2023: Peaks, Declines, and Mounting Risks Double Shock, Double Recovery Paper Series Christoph Kurowski, Martin Schmidt, Anurag Kumar, Julio Mieses, and Jacopo Gabani November 2024 3 Health, Nutrition and Population Discussion Paper This series is produced by the Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Global Practice of the World Bank. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on HNP topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of materials presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. For information regarding the HNP Discussion Paper Series, please contact the Editor, Jung-Hwan Choi at jchoi@worldbank.org. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: World Bank © 2024 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433. All rights reserved. 4 Health, Nutrition and Population Discussion Paper Government Health Spending Trends through 2023: Peaks, Declines, and Mounting Risks Christoph Kurowski, Martin Schmidt, Anurag Kumar, Julio Mieses, and Jacopo Gabani. Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. Abstract This paper presents the most recent trends in government health spending (GHS) across 63 low- and lower-middle-income countries, offering critical insights as nations approach the decisive period for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). After the pandemic-induced surge, sustained declines in GHS per capita followed. While these declines might appear to be a logical consolidation, the resulting modest growth in GHS per capita and decreases in health’s share of overall government spending between 2019 and 2023 pose significant challenges to the sustainability of government investment in heal