世界银行-政府卫生支出展望——2029年预测：财政压力分散，制约因素不均衡（英）

Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized2 Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029 Diverging Fiscal Pressures, Uneven Constraints Double Shock, Double Recovery Paper Series Christoph Kurowski, Martin Schmidt, David B. Evans, Ajay Tandon, Patrick Hoang-Vu Eozenou, Jewelwayne Salcedo Cain, and Eko Setyo Pambudi November 2024 3 Health, Nutrition and Population Discussion Paper This series is produced by the Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Global Practice of the World Bank. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on HNP topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of materials presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. For information regarding the HNP Discussion Paper Series, please contact the Editor, Jung-Hwan Choi at jchoi@worldbank.org. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: World Bank © 2024 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433. All rights reserved. 4 Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029 Diverging Fiscal Pressures, Uneven Constraints Double Shock, Double Recovery Paper Series Christoph Kurowski, Martin Schmidt, David B. Evans, Ajay Tandon, Patrick Hoang-Vu Eozenou, Jewelwayne Salcedo Cain, and Eko Setyo Pambudi. Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. Abstract This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in governments' capacities to increase health