国际清算银行-量子计算与金融体系：机遇与风险（英）

BIS Papers No 149 Quantum computing and the financial system: opportunities and risks by Raphael Auer, Angela Dupont, Leonardo Gambacorta, Joon Suk Park, Koji Takahashi, and Andras Valko Monetary and Economic Department October 2024 JEL classification: C19, C63, C8, M15, G1, G17 Keywords: quantum computing, quantum algorithm, quantum cryptography, quantum-resilient cryptography, artificial intelligence, computational finance, Project Leap. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1682-7651 (online) ISBN 978-92-9259-794-8 (online) Quantum computing and the financial system: opportunities and risks 1 Quantum computing and the financial system: opportunities and risks* Raphael Auer, Angela Dupont, Leonardo Gambacorta, Joon Suk Park, Koji Takahashi, and Andras Valko* Abstract Quantum computers are still in an experimental phase, but in the future, they may have a profound impact on the financial system. By providing faster and potentially more efficient solutions, quantum computers have the potential to solve certain complex problems that are of paramount interest in the field of economics and finance. For example, quantum simulation algorithms can be leveraged in stress testing and macroeconomic analysis, and quantum optimisation can be used in asset pricing. Meanwhile, the advent of quantum computers also introduces a potential threat to financial stability, especially through their ability to breach some of the most widely used cryptographic algorithms. Despite the nascent state of quantum computing development, the potential for sensitive data to be stored now with the intention to be decrypted later necessitates immediate preparation. This paper explores the transformative potential of quantum mechanics and its applications to the financial system, including the potential benefits as well as the main risks. It also highlights current actions within the central bank community to address these potential risks, including Project Leap, started by the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub, the Banque de France and Deutsche Bundesbank. Keywords: quantum computing, quantum algorithm, quantum cryptography, quantum-resilient cryptography, artificial intelligence, computational finance, Project Leap. JEL classification: C19, C63, C8, M15, G1, G17. ∗ Raphael Auer and Leonardo Gambacorta are with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and affiliated with the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Koji Takahashi, Joon Suk Park and Andras Valko are with the BIS. Angela Dupont is with the BIS and the Banque de France. We thank Giulio Cornelli and Ilaria Mattei for assistance with data and figures, and Christophe Laforge and David Koepfer