IMF-越南：精选问题（英）

© 2024 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 24/307 VIETNAM SELECTED ISSUES This Selected Issues paper on Vietnam was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 31, 2024. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2024 VIETNAM SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Asia and Pacific Department Prepared By Federico Díez, Nga Ha Kim, Faizaan Kisat, Jesper Linde, Paulo Medas, Van Anh Nguyen, Roland Meeks, Ryoichi Okuma, Jochen M. Schmittmann, Tatjana Schulze, Shogo Takahashi and Weining Xin. RETHINKING TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY IN VIETNAM _______________________3 A. Monetary Policy Tools in Vietnam ____________________________________________________________ 3 B. Recent Dynamics of Key Variables ____________________________________________________________ 5 C. Empirical Estimates: Transmission of Each Monetary Policy Rate _____________________________ 7 D. Conclusions ________________________________________________________________________________ 11 References ____________________________________________________________________________________ 12 AN APPLICATION OF THE INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK TO VIETNAM ____________ 13 A. The Integrated Policy Framework and Its Role for Vietnam ________________________________ 13 B. Vietnam’s IPF-Relevant Country Characteristics ____________________________________________ 15 C. Policy Trade-Offs Under Scenario-Based Analysis __________________________________________ 20 D. The 2022 Financial Disruption______________________________________________________________ 24 E. Conclusions ________________________________________________________________________________ 27 References ____________________________________________________________________________________ 29 VIETNAM’S GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET - STATE OF THE MARKET AND OPTIONS FOR MARKET DEVELOPMENT ____________________________________________________________________ 30 A. State of the Market ________________________________________________________________________ 30 CONTENTS July 31, 2024 VIETNAM 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND B. Causes of Stagnating Market Size and Trading, The Concentrated Investor Base and Low Yields ________________________________________________________________________________ 35 C. Benefits from Developing the Sovereign Bond Market _____________________________________ 36 D. Policies to Develop the Government Bond Market _________________________________________ 38 References ____________________________________________________________________________________ 41 VIETNA