IMF-文莱达鲁萨兰国：若干问题（英）

© 2024 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 24/302 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Brunei Darussalam was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on August 20, 2024. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2024 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Asia and Pacific Department Prepared By Ritu Basu, Ganchimeg Ganpurev, and Jonghyun Kim (all APD); Shohhei Kawase (OAP), Thomas Augsten (SPR); and Andrea Medici (RES) DRIVERS OF INFLATION_______________________________________________________________ 4 A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 4 B. Methodology ______________________________________________________________________ 6 C. Data _______________________________________________________________________________ 6 D. Results _____________________________________________________________________________ 7 E. Further Analysis____________________________________________________________________ 8 F. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________ 8 FIGURES 1. Consumer Price Index _____________________________________________________________ 4 2. Headline Inflation __________________________________________________________________ 4 3. Broadness Index ___________________________________________________________________ 5 4. Inflation and Global Supply Chain Pressure ________________________________________ 5 5. Augmented Phillips Curve _________________________________________________________ 7 6. Decomposition of Inflation ________________________________________________________ 8 References ______________________________________________________________________________ 9 LONG-TERM FISCAL TRAJECTORY BASED ON THE PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS ___________________________________________________________________ 10 FIGURES 1. Non-O&G Deficit Path (Intermediate Transition Scenario) _______________________ 10 2. Non-O&G Deficit Path (Gradual Transition Scenario) ____________________________ 10 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 12 CONTENTS August 20, 2024 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND BRUNEI FINANCIAL SECTOR ___________________________________________________________________ 13 FIGURES 1. Domestic Credit ____________________________________________________________________________ 15 2. Credit Growth to Households from Banks and Finance Companies _________________________ 16 3. Loan Composition _______________________________