IMF-丹麦：选定问题（英）

© 2024 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 24/293 DENMARK SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Denmark was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with Denmark. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on August 22, 2024. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2024 DENMARK SELECTED ISSUES Approved By European Department Prepared by Burcu Hacibedel, Mariusz Jarmuzek, and Takuji Komatsuzaki. PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS TO THE PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR AND THE DANISH ECONOMY _______________________________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________ 3 B. Danish Pharmaceutical Sector and the Macroeconomy ________________________________ 5 C. Empirics: Shocks to Novo Nordisk and MNEs and their Impact on the Danish Economy _________________________________________________________________________________ 7 D. Conclusions ___________________________________________________________________________ 11 BOX 1. Danish Exports that Do Not Cross Border ______________________________________________ 4 FIGURES 1. Selected Indicators for Good Exports and Pharmaceutical Industry ____________________ 4 2. Novo Nordisk: Selected Indicators _____________________________________________________ 5 3. Macroeconomic Impact of the Pharmaceutical Industry ________________________________ 6 TABLES 1. Top-10 Firms in Denmark by Sales, 1995 and 2022 ____________________________________ 8 2. Regression Results: Impact of Firm-Specific Shocks on Real GDP Growth ______________ 9 3. Regression Results: Impact of Firm-Specific Shocks to the Smaller Firms ______________ 10 References _______________________________________________________________________________ 14 ANNEX I. Technical Details _______________________________________________________________________ 12 CONTENTS August 22, 2024 DENMARK 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS IN DENMARK’S NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS _____15 A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________________ 15 B. Vulnerabilities _________________________________________________________________________________ 16 C. Risks __________________________________________________________________________________________ 21 D. Mitigating Factors ____________________________________________________________________________ 22 E. Policy Options _________________________________________________________________________________ 23 F. Conclusions and Policy Considerations ___________________________