首席经济学家展望：2024年9月（英）-世界经济论坛

Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietySeptember 20242Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2024 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookSeptember 2024This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in August 2024.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary __________________________________________________________ 51. Turbulent crosswinds _____________________________________________________ 7Hoping for a soft landing ___________________________________________________ 7Monetary policy turning a corner ____________________________________________ 112. A brewing storm _________________________________________________________ 14Debt dynamics darken ____________________________________________________ 14Fiscal policy challenges ____________________________________________________ 163. Better balanced growth __________________________________________________ 19The prospects for a new growth agenda _____________________________________ 19References _________________________________________________________________ 23Contributors _______________________________________________________________ 27Acknowledgements _________________________________________________________ 28Cover: Getty images5Chief Economists OutlookExecutive summaryThe September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook launches amid continuing economic uncertainty. The short-term outlook for the global economy has begun to stabilize, but many vulnerabilities remain. A majority of the chief economists surveyed (54%) expect the condition of the global economy to remain unchanged over the next year, but four times as many expect conditions to weaken (37%) rather than to strengthen (9%).There are reasons for cautious optimism, notably including a continued gradual easing of inflation rates and a shift to loose