世界银行-降低排放强度的有效燃料价格：巴西的面板分析（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10926Effective Fuel Price in Reducing Emission IntensityA Panel Analysis for Brazil Ayan QuMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice &Africa RegionSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10926This paper studies how effective an incremental change in the price of fuel, a proxy for fuel carbon tax, is in reduc-ing the emission intensity of road transportation in Brazil through panel analysis at the federative unit level from 2010 to 2020, after offering descriptive insights into Brazil’s auto-motive fuel market with respect to its products, actors, and external factors. The paper postulates multiple variations of panel analysis models and focuses on dynamic two-way fixed effects models based on statistical results. The findings show that (1) the price of diesel has the most significant and robust impact on reducing emission intensity; (2) the short-run and long-run elasticities of the price of diesel are −0.74 and −2.06, respectively; and (3) both entity and time effects are significant, with the year of 2020 having a consistent effect in reducing emission intensity across the estimated models.This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice and the Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at aqu@worldbank.org. Effective Fuel Price in Reducing Emission Intensity: A Panel Analysis for Brazil Ayan Qu Keywords: fuel prices; emission intensity; transportation; panel analysis; Brazil JEL Classification: Q41; Q58; H23; C23 Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Marek Hanusch and Daniel Navia Simon for guidance, and Jon Strand, Gabriela Mundaca, Heron Marcos Teixeira Rios, and Vanessa Rahal Canado for comments/discussions/contributions. Errors are the responsibilities of the author. The author may be contacted at aqu@worldbank.org. 2 I. Introduction Transpor