IMF-衡量软实力：一个新的全球指数（英）

Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index Serhan Cevik and Tales Padilha WP/24/212 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2024 OCT * The authors would like to thank Kazuko Shirono and the participants of a seminar at the European Department ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) for helpful comments and suggestions.© 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/212IMF Working Paper European Department Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index Prepared by Serhan Cevik and Tales Padilha* Authorized for distribution by Kazuko Shirono October 2024 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Soft power is difficult to measure directly, and existing indicators—mostly subjective and not always transparent—fail to take into account the multidimensional nature of soft power. In this paper, we introduce a new comprehensive Global Soft Power Index (GSPI) composed of six dimensions for a broad sample of countries over a long span of time. The proposed framework allows for comparisons not only at the “headline” level of the GSPI, but also at the level of the sub-indices, which in turn helps identify and study how countries differ at a granular level of soft power. In a final step of the analysis, we present a possible macro-financial application to investigate the relationship between soft power and exchange rates. The results indicate that some dimensions of the GSPI play an important role in explaining exchange rate volatility. Overall, the composite GSPI presented in this paper provides a systematic approach to measure soft power along its multiple dimensions. By capturing the matrix of soft power characteristics, the GSPI offers significant advantages in comparative analysis of soft power across countries and over time. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Cevik, S., and T. Padilha (2024). “Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index,” IMF Working Paper No. 24/212 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund). JEL Classification Numbers: C23; C43; F31; F59; O10 Keywords: Soft power; composite indicators; comparative analysis; principal component analysis; K-Means clustering; exchange rate volatility Author’s E-Mail Address: scevik@imf.org; tales.padilha@economics.ox.ac.uk WORKING PAPERS Measuring Soft Power A New Global Index Prepared by Serhan Cevik and Tales Padilha IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents Executive Summary ...............................................................................................