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1Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAMichael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAMurat Tasci (1-212) 622-0288murat.tasci@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAbiel Reinhart (1-212) 270 4058abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NANorth America Economic Research04 October 2024J P M O R G A NAnother possibility is that the Fed could choose not to cut at all at the November meeting, although we also don’t think this is the most likely outcome. There is only one more set of inflation reports between now and then, and even a firm upside surprise could be discounted as normal monthly vola-tility on the path back toward the 2% target. The most likely way in which the no-cut option is discussed is if such a firm inflation reading were combined with another very strong jobs report, particularly if the unemployment rate were to fall again. The inflation data will be out next week, where we look for a second consecutive 0.3%m/m (0.29%) rise in the core CPI, which would keep the year-over-year rate at 3.2%. Like in August some of the firmness is likely to be in catego-ries that either get lower weight in the core PCE or don’t feed into it, so the core PCE will likely continue to run softer. The other piece of news that arrived at the end of the week was the suspension of the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike only a few days after it had begun. The dockworkers union reached a tentative deal with the shipping lines and agreed to extend their current contract through mid-January while they finalize the details. Given the brevity of the strike we don’t expect it to be visible in key economic statistics. Employment strong in SeptemberComing into the September jobs report the three-month mov-ing average gain in nonfarm employment had slowed to 116k, compared to a trailing 12-month average of almost 200k (not including likely downward revisions in the next benchmark). The 254k increase was thus welcome news, as was the cumu-lative 72k upward revision to prior months that now leaves the three-month average at a much more healthy 186k (Figure 1). Most of the latest gain was in private-sector jobs, which increased 223k last month, more than double the pace of the prior few months. The improvement was also fairly spread out across industries, and the diffusion index that measures the breadth of gains within private industries rose 6%-pts and is now the highest since the start of the year.Average hourly earnings were also robust, increasing 0.4%m/m, which along with an upward revision to the prior month caused the year-over-year rate to increase from a recent low of 3.6% in July to 4.0% in September. To the extent that there was a soft spot in the establishment survey it was in the hours-worked figures, as the workweek edged down to 34.2 from 34.3. Consequently aggregate hours actually fell 0.1%m/m, and rose just 0.2%q/q saar in 3Q, the smallest gain since 2Q23. This wou