Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary October 1-110564660

M Update Global Macro Commentary | GlobalOctober 1Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiromu UezatoResearch Associate Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Arnav GuptaStrategist Arnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0382 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCHeather BergerEconomist Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296 Flight to quality amid geopolitical risk; US job openings rise; OATs gain amid PM Barnier's intent to lower the deficit; BoJ minutes reconfirm less hawkish stance; SNB's Schlegel says negative rates ‘can't be excluded’; ZAR underperforms; DXY at 101.20 (+0.4%); US 10y at 3.732% (+4.9bp).• A flight to quality supports a rally in USTs after heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East prompt a risk-off environment, with global equities lower alongside a bid for government bonds.• US JOLTs job openings rise more than expected in August, easing fears of labor market weakness, but details show a hires rate near cycle lows, a drop in the quits rate, and a fairly steady layoff rate.• French OATs lead euro area gains as Prime Minister Barnier announces he intends to reduce the French deficit to 5% in 2025 from 6% in 2024; euro area inflation falling below the 2% target for the first time since 2021 also supports the gains in European duration.• JGBs twist-steepen as the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions for the September meeting reconfirm the BoJ’s view that an imminent rate hike is less likely given the uncertainty around the US economy and that some BoJ members think upside risks to inflation have eased.• In his first speech as chairman, SNB's Schlegel, previously vice-chair, says the central bank views downward risks to Swiss inflation as bigger than upward risks, flagging that “negative interest rates can't be excluded.” • Risk-sensitive and emerging market currencies fall amid the geopolitical risk with ZAR as an underperformer, weakening -0.7% against the USD.Please refer to our latest Global Macro Strategist (The Inflation Ouroboros), as well as our recent publications and collaborations (UK Fiscal Policy: Taxing Choices Ahead; EM Sovereign Credit Strategy: Rich & Cheap Watch).Developed Markets United States: Heightened tensions in the Middle East prompted a flight-to-quality, risk-off environment on Tuesday. Global equities sold off, with Euro Stoxx and the S&P 500 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst cert