Global Data Watch All right, everybody works today-110615667

Global Economic Research04 October 2024J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comContentsUS: The Fed in a second Trump presidency13US: Implication of higher wage growth in the NIPAs15BoE: Two inflation markers for a dovish pivot17GCC remittances: Go with the flow20 Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Economic Activity Tracking8Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan Economics10J.P. Morgan Market Watch11 Data Watches United States22 Focus: The effects of Helene31Euro area32Japan37Canada42Mexico44Brazil46Argentina48Andeans50United Kingdom52Sweden and Norway55Emerging Europe57South Africa63Australia and New Zealand65China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan67Korea70ASEAN72India76 Regional Data Calendars78Economic and Policy ResearchBruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NANora Szentivanyi(44-20) 7134-7544nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcManaging EditorMalcolm Barr(44-20) 7134-8326malcolm.barr@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcGlobal Data Watch•US data show high-for-long soft-landing scenarios are underappreciated •Global manufacturing surveys slide with a concern that sentiment is faltering•Looking for a limited China fiscal shoe to drop•Next week: Firm US core CPI; RBI and BoK remain on holdAll right, everybody works todayOur recent focus on macroeconomic risks has highlighted the two-sided tails around a strongly held consensus view that US and global growth will be sluggish and core inflation will move steadily toward 2%, and that this will afford the Fed and Western European central banks the opportunity to deliver a cumulative easing of more than 200bp. This week’s key September reports do not prompt any upward revision to our near-term growth forecasts as the global manufacturing PMI output survey dipped below 50 and US hours worked fell. However, service sector surveys remain constructive, and the US delivered strong private sector job and wage gains. The “high for long” scenarios that we have flagged as an underappreciated risk — where modest correlated surprises on growth, labor market pressures, and inflation materially limit central bank easing relative to current expectations — are once again gaining traction (Table 1). An individual US employment report has limited value in isolation, but the break in downward momentum in labor demand and its correlation with other high-frequency signals is important. A rebound in private sector hiring to a more normal range aligns with the latest service sector surveys. Meanwhile, August JOLTS, September claims, and CPS flow data show job shedding remains low despite a higher unemployment rate. Taken together with indications of sustained solid labor income growth, concerns that a midyear cooling in labor will magnify have faded. The news on labor cost pressures is less decisive. A firming in wage gains and a reversal of the past two months’ unemployme