定量解读市场情绪、估值及资金面情况

证券研究报告定量解读市场情绪、估值及资金面情况请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明分析师：包承超、邓宇林2024年09月30日图：全A个股PB估值分布情况资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所图：市净率分位数从2024年8月的1.1%反弹至9月的17.4%资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所1个月2个月3个月4个月5个月6个月(0%,10%]2.6%5.0%6.9%11.0%12.6%13.3%(10%,20%]4.1%6.0%7.3%8.4%8.4%10.8%(20%,30%]1.9%3.3%4.9%5.7%6.2%7.8%(30%,40%]-1.4%-1.4%-1.9%-0.9%2.1%3.0%(40%,50%]-0.3%-0.6%-1.3%-0.4%1.8%5.8%(50%,60%]1.6%2.7%2.1%4.2%4.8%5.3%(60%,70%]-0.1%-0.5%0.2%-0.6%-0.4%-1.0%(70%,80%]0.5%1.2%1.4%-1.5%-1.0%-0.6%(80%,90%]-0.4%1.8%4.5%6.0%1.2%-4.6%(90%,100%]-0.7%-3.0%-5.5%-6.0%-5.3%-3.7%市净率分位数未来N个月涨跌幅图：历史数据表明，市净率分位数较低时，后续反弹持续性较强 图：上证指数的股权风险溢价回落至平均水平资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所图：上证指数的股息风险溢价位于1-2倍标准差区间图：上证指数的股权风险溢价回落至平均水平资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所图：全A GLDI资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所放量上涨图：宽基与行业 GLDI资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所其他大盘小盘成长价值煤炭石油石化钢铁有色金属基础化工建筑材料建筑装饰交通运输机械设备电力设备汽车家用电器轻工制造国防军工环保社会服务商贸零售纺织服饰美容护理食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物银行非银金融房地产电子计算机 传媒通信公用事业2024-09-30100%100%100%100%100%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%99%100%98%98%100%100%100%99%100%99%100%100%100%99%100%100%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%99%100%99%2024-09-2798%96%96%98%99%98%99%96%96%98%98%95%100%93%100%100%98%100%97%93%99%99%99%98%99%98%97%99%99%97%100%99%98%97%100%100%100%98%99%98%98%92%2024-09-2032%38%32%31%32%35%22%18%30%31%35%23%29%15%20%45%25%32%30%21%28%32%40%44%31%18%20%28%63%31%28%25%30%16%7%69%81%20%62%47%49%16%2024-09-1322%26%18%19%22%23%18%18%18%20%24%15%5%13%18%16%19%11%21%13%21%32%28%21%26%11%17%15%32%27%21%10%19%19%0%45%35%15%38%34%31%9%2024-09-0627%30%21%24%28%30%21%16%24%24%27%24%16%17%13%21%31%28%21%21%23%27%35%26%35%14%16%32%50%33%21%17%20%23%10%35%24%30%39%44%34%13%2024-08-3044%38%30%37%42%46%33%36%29%37%47%31%39%52%20%56%53%49%38%21%45%45%37%49%55%15%32%39%49%50%45%40%36%41%2%44%42%51%49%59%61%20%2024-08-2316%26%23%14%14%18%9%14%29%14%22%28%11%17%7%7%13%17%15%23%15%11%13%24%14%9%12%24%15%16%10%10%7%13%76%26%10%20%26%25%34%10%2024-08-1643%38%28%36%37%44%25%26%31%34%48%44%37%52%20%14%33%40%50%37%44%29%27%40%43%25%59%35%41%50%55%44%37%68%64%75%53%37%40%66%49%30%2024-08-0944%34%30%45%43%45%33%34%28%42%43%33%45%52%38%18%38%61%64%44%36%32%29%46%52%62%55%59%67%57%62%73%70%69%5%80%88%20%24%42%35%32%2024-08-0254%50%43%51%51%55%46%52%43%49%56%37%16%48%49%32%43%57%67%68%56%42%56%61%48%89%62%56%68%50%62%51%69%69%29%89%66%34%52%58%41%38%2024-07-2624%36%31%24%20%21%22%30%31%20%21%16%3%20%18%14%15%21%24%39%33%26%33%27%15%59%38%19%29%16%21%17%24%19%17%54%14%18%24%15%14%25%2024-07-1924%66%51%25%20%17%34%44%54%22%22%22%3%22%27%26%20%22%20%34%23%17%27%14%15%25%23%25%28%20%17%27%31%30%48%36%15%39%21%11%20%17%2024-07-1224%44%34%22%21%22%23%32%35%20%25%24%0%37%27%40%21%21%21%28%20%16%42%16%19%14%21%32%21%17%28%12%16%22%31%12%18%43%28%9%29%24%2024-07-0512%22%21%12%9%10%8%22%23%9%14%22%8%22%11%17%7%14%13%20%10%9%12%9%8%5%7%9%12%6%10%5%7%8%26%4%5%17%19%12%16%23%2024-06-2813%24%23%12%9%10%9%20%26%9%17%18%8%17%2%8%6%9%16%18%15%14%13%5%4%11%9%8%4%6%10%2%2%4%21%6%6%36%19%7%22%22%2024-06-2115%20%20%12%13%12%11%44%20%11%19%13%16%9%0%7%7%8%15%14%14%11%16%5%6%12%10%5%4%7%3%4%4%10%12%4%7%52%22%6%27%16%2024-06-1415%22%24%17%13