Asia Local Market Issuance and Flows Pack Chart pack of regi...-110439505

EM Asia Local Markets StrategySean Kelly (AC) (65) 6882-8442sean.t.kelly@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore BranchArindam Sandilya (65) 6882-7759arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore BranchTiffany Wang (852) 2800-1726tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) LimitedEM Asia Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance23 September 2024Foreign Flows into Local Currency Government Bonds SummaryUSD billion. Latest value is based on available monthly data and subject to revision following release of additional data.Source: J.P. Morgan, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: Philippines data based on BoP debt flows, China (CGB), India (IGB), Indonesia (INDOGB, INDOIS, INDORB), Malaysia (MGS, MGII), Philippines (RPGB), South Korea (KTB), and Thailand (THAIGB).Foreign Ownership SummaryLocal Currency Government Bond Gross Issuance SummaryForeign ownership of local currency government bonds as % of amount outstanding CountryLatest ($bn)Latest (%)1M change (%pts)12M change (%pts)Ownership since Jan-21China322.1 (Aug-24)7.1% (Aug-24)-0.1%-0.7%India35.8 (Aug-24)3.0% (Aug-24)0.2%1.2%Indonesia55.3 (Aug-24)14.5% (Aug-24)0.5%-0.9%Malaysia62.4 (Aug-24)22.7% (Aug-24)0.4%-0.7%Philippines5.0 (Jun-24)2.8% (Jun-24)0.3%0.9%South Korea178.3 (Aug-24)22.3% (Aug-24)0.4%1.0%Thailand26.2 (Aug-24)10.3% (Aug-24)0.4%-1.4%Vietnam0.2 (Mar-24)0.2% (Mar-24)0.0%-0.2%Source: J.P. Morgan, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: Philippines and Vietnam quarterly data; others latest available monthly data:China (CGB), India (IGB), Indonesia (INDOGB, INDOIS, INDORB), Malaysia (MGS, MGII), Philippines (RPGB), South Korea (KTB), Thailand (THAIGB), and Vietnam (VIETGB).See pages 21-23 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.Source: J.P. Morgan Estimates, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: India & Thailand are for latest fiscal yearMonthly HighlightsForeign Flows: On the back of heightened expectations of US Fed easing and the pass-through to regional central banks in EM Asia, August saw its strongest monthly inflow of the year (+$17bn). This takes total local currency bond inflows to +$31bn YTD - the largest beneficiaries have been India and South Korea.Local bond issuance: (1) Thailand: Authorities have pencilled in gross loan bond issuance for FY25 to come in at THB1,250bn - the same level they had expected to see through FY24 which was later increased given spending related to the digital wallet scheme. The reason for the same issuance expectation (despite a higher deficit) is due to the fact that authorities will only be funding 48% of total issuance needs through THAIGB supply in FY25, compared to the 52% this year (FY24). Of the total gross bond issuance, 51% is expected to come through 3-5y paper.JPM EM Client Survey: In this month’s survey, we saw broad based additions in FX, while rates saw more diff