世界银行-隐藏债务披露（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10907Hidden Debt RevelationsSebastian HornDavid MihalyiPhilipp NickolCésar Sosa-PadillaMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10907How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 50 vintages of World Bank debt statistics. In a sample of debt data covering 146 coun-tries and 53 years, the paper establishes three new stylized facts: (i) debt statistics are systematically under-reported; (ii) hidden debt accumulates in boom years and tends to be revealed in bad times, often during IMF programs and sovereign defaults; and (iii) in debt restructurings, higher hidden debt is associated with larger creditor losses. The novel data is used to numerically discipline a quantitative sovereign debt model with hidden debt accumulation and an endogenous monitoring decision that triggers revela-tions. Model simulations show that hidden debt has adverse effects on default risk, debt-carrying capacity and asset prices and is therefore welfare detrimental.This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at shorn1@worldbank.org; dmihalyi@worldbank.org; philipp.nickol@vwl.uni-due.de; and csosapad@nd.edu.Hidden Debt Revelations∗Sebastian HornDavid MihalyiPhilipp NickolCésar Sosa-Padilla†Keywords: hidden debt, sovereign debt, defaultJEL classification: F34, H63, G01∗We received valuable comments from Fernando Arce, Tamon Asonuma, Gadi Barlevy, Volker Clausen,Aitor Erce, Stelios Fourakis, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Aart Kraay, Leonardo Martinez, Julian Martinez-Iriarte, Marti Mestieri, Ugo Panizza, Juan Passadore, Carmen Reinhart, Diego Rivetti, Juan Sanchez,Zachary Stangebye, and Christoph Tr