兰德-人工智能基础模型市场中的自然垄断条件评估（英）

JON SCHMID, TOBIAS SYTSMA, ANTON SHENKEvaluating Natural Monopoly Conditions in the AI Foundation Model MarketResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA3415-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2024 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Cover: cemagraphics/Getty Images and Anastasiia/Adobe Stock. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. iii About This Report Because of the wide variety of tasks they can be used to perform, foundation models—a class of artificial intelligence (AI) models trained on large and diverse datasets and capable of performing many tasks—have the potential to have a large effect in shaping the economic and social effects of AI. The authors of this report examine the economic and production attributes of pre-trained foundation models to answer a single question: Is the market for foundation models a natural monopoly? To assess whether foundation models are a natural monopoly, we establish a set of empirical criteria for classifying a market as a natural monopoly and then apply these criteria to the status quo foundation model market and to four hypothetical scenarios set