世界银行-非洲经济转型：南北和南南贸易的作用（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10896Economic Transformation in Africa The Role of North-South and South-South TradeWoubet KassaGideon NdubuisiSolomon OwusuAfrica RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10896This paper contributes to the discussion on Africa’s path-ways to economic transformation by examining the roles of trade patterns—specifically, South-South and North-South trade—focusing on intermediate and capital goods sourced from both the Global North and the Global South. The paper relies on a panel dataset comprising 44 African countries from 2000 to 2022. To address endogeneity con-cerns, it uses a two-stage least squares method, employing instrumental variables that leverage exogenous changes in trading partner conditions. Findings from the analysis indi-cate that imported capital and intermediates significantly predict economic transformation in Africa. However, the impact of imports from the Global North and the Global South varies depending on the specific channel of eco-nomic transformation. Imports from the Global South are more influential in driving structural change, while those from the Global North are more effective in facilitating productivity convergence. This divergence highlights the distinct roles that North-South and South-South trade play in Africa’s economic transformation agenda. The findings underscore the importance of a nuanced trade policy that leverages the strengths of both regional and global trade partners to advance Africa’s economic transformation.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at wkassa1@worldbank.org. Economic Transformation in Africa: The Role of North-South and South-South Trade Woubet Kassa World Bank, Washington DC, United States Gideon Ndubuisi Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands Solomon Owusu Fr