世界银行-叙利亚难民移民对约旦的经济影响：一体化视角（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10903The Economic Impacts of the Syrian Refugee Migration on JordanAn Integration Perspective Juan Segnana Gladys Lopez-Acevedo Raymond Robertson Jaime Alfonso Roche Rodriguez Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10903The Syrian Civil War in 2011 led to a substantial influx of refugees into Jordan, with more than 660,000 Syrians arriving by 2015. More than half of these refugees were of working age. This study shows that Syrian refugees have less education than their Jordanian counterparts, and policies attempted to help them to assimilate into manufacturing. The study tests two hypotheses related to refugee assim-ilation. The first hypothesis examines the 2016 Jordan Compact with the European Union, which aimed to inte-grate Syrian refugees and improve Jordan’s export profile with simplified rules of origin for certain industries. If the Jordan Compact was effective, a relative increase in exports to the European Union, compared to other regions, would be expected. The second hypothesis suggests that the successful integration of Syrian workers into the man-ufacturing sector contributed to a boost in manufacturing exports to all destinations relative to other exports. The study conducts a gravity difference-in-differences analysis to evaluate these two hypotheses. The findings show little, if any, evidence supporting the first hypothesis but strong sup-port for the second. These findings suggest that although the simplified rules of origin had limited impact on exports to the European Union, the Jordanian government effec-tively integrated Syrian workers into the manufacturing sector. Labor force surveys indicate that a skill mismatch impeded the integration of Syrian workers into the indus-tries targeted by the Jordan Compact, but refugees were successfully assimilated into the manufacturing industry.This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Worki