世界银行-不丹国家经济备忘录，2024年9月：最大限度地发挥不丹经济多样化和结构转型的潜力（英）

Maximizing Bhutan’s Potential for Economic Diversification and Structural TransformationBHUTANCOUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM© 2024 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomina-tions, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2024. XXX” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover picture: © 2017 Sabine Hortebusch/Shutterstock. No use without permission.Design: Alejandro Espinosa / sonideas.comBhutan Country Economic MemorandumBhutan Country Economic MemorandumMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment (MTI) Global PracticeS E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 4 Maximizing Bhutan’s Potential for Economic Diversification and Structural TransformationContentsAcknowledgements xAbbreviations and Acronyms xiExecutive Summary 11. Hydropower Revenue Management for Economic Diversification 221.1. Introduction  231.2. Bhutan’s hydro and non-hydro growth nexus  251.2.1. Past growth has been driven by the publicly led and capital-intensive hydro sector  251.2.2. The private sector has remained small, with limited employment opportunities  281.2.3. Economy-wide effects of the hydro sector and symptoms of the Dutch Disease  311.3. Economic diversification in Bhutan: a framework for managing hydropower rents  371.3.1. The case for investing domestically  371.3.2. Current policies for economic diversification in Bhutan  411.3.3. A suitable institutional framework for effectively channeling hydropower rents towards productivity enhancing assets in Bhutan.  451.4. Policy priorities  541.4.1. Hydropower development to leverage the current comparative advantage and ensure future hydro rents  541.4.2. Policies to lay the foundation for (new) comparative advantages in the non-hydropower sectors  551.4.3. Institutional setup to frame and implement sector-specific policies  572. Structural Transformation Through Agricultural Productivity 602.1. Introduction  612.2. Struct