麦肯锡-医生短缺不会消失（英）

Healthcare PracticeThe physician shortage isn’t going anywherePhysicians shed light on the factors that are pushing them out of the workforce and the changes that could make them stay.By Laura Medford-Davis and Rupal Malaniwith Chelsea Snipes and Pieter Du PlessisSeptember 2024The physician shortage isn’t going anywhere2Healthcare organizations are grappling with the increasingly difficult—and urgent—task of attracting and retaining physician talent to meet increasing patient demand for care. By the end of this year, the United States is expected to have a shortage of up to 64,000 physicians.1 The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the already substantial burnout among physicians and contributed to an unprecedented departure of physicians from the clinical workforce.2 Looking ahead, physicians’ desires to step back from clinical care show no signs of abating, with current projections indicating the physician deficit could grow to up to 86,000 by 2036.3One reason for the expected shortage is that some 20 percent of clinical physicians are aged 65 years or older, putting organizations in the position to soon lose a substantial number of physicians to retirement.4 The expanding gap in the physician workforce is particularly consequential given the projected growth in patient demand: the number of people aged 65 and up—an inherently higher-need patient group—is expected to rise to 23 percent of the population, from 17 percent, by 2050.5To deploy effective strategies to address the physician shortfall and ensure continued delivery of quality patient care, healthcare organizations are searching for the root causes of physicians leaving the workforce. With this in mind, we focused our seventh physician survey on unearthing the mindsets that are pushing doctors in the United States out of the workforce (see sidebar, “Research methodology”). Our findings, based on a survey of 631 physicians, underscore the need to take urgent action.1 GlobalData, The complexities of physician supply and demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036, AAMC, March 2024.2 Ethan Popowitz, Addressing the healthcare staffing shortage, Definitive Healthcare, September 2023.3 GlobalData, The complexities of physician supply and demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036, AAMC, March 2024.4 “New AAMC report shows continuing projected physician shortage,” AAMC press release, March 21, 2024.5 Mark Mather and Paola Scommegna, “Fact Sheet: Aging in the United States,” PRB, January 9, 2024.By the end of this year, the United States is expected to have a shortage of up to 64,000 physicians.Research methodologyTo support healthcare organizations in understanding challenges and trends in physician well-being and employment in the United States, McKinsey launched a research effort to gather physician insights on myriad elements of their experience—from employment to changes in clinical practice, value-based care, compensation, and burnout.These surveys are not meant to be a comprehensive or det