国际清算银行-优雅老龄化：引导银行业通过人口结构转变（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1193 Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts by Patrick A. Imam and Christian Schmieder Monetary and Economic Department June 2024 JEL classification: G21, J11, G01, G28, G32, B26 Keywords: Aging, Demographics, Bank risk-taking, Financial Stability BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Abstract We analyze how aging populations in might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.* * Patrick A. Imam (Joint Vienna Institute and International Monetary Fund); Christian Schmieder (Bank for International Settlements). The views expressed in them are those of the authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS or the IMF, their executive boards, or their respective managements. The authors would like to thank Claudio Borio, Udaibir Das, Sebastian Doerr, Max Fandl, Jon Frost, Gaston Gelos, Divya Kirti, Herve Joly, Kangni Kpodar, Hyun Song Shin, Koji Takahashi, Etienne Yehoue and BIS seminar participants on February 26. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS or the IMF. The usual disclaimer applies. 2 Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 3 I. Introduction ...............................................