2024年-美国船级社碳中和路径和过渡技术展望

CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS and TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESWhile ABS uses reasonable efforts to accurately describe and update the information in this publication, ABS makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, currency or completeness. ABS assumes no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this publication. To the extent permitted by applicable law, everything in this publication is provided without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement. In no event will ABS be liable for any damages whatsoever, including special, indirect, consequential or incidental damages or damages for loss of profits, revenue, or use, whether brought in contract or tort, arising out of or connected with this publication or the use or reliance upon any of the content or any information contained herein.Section 1 — Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.1 Regulatory Updates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 Publication Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Section 2 — Energy Transition Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.2 Long-Term Energy Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.3 Cargo Demand and Fuel Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182.4 Geopolitical Impacts to Maritime Decarbonization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332.5 Fuel Mix Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Section 3 — Market Outlook and Ecosystem Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403.1. Orderbook Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .403.2. Retrofit Status and Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523.3. Shipyard Capacity . . .