可再生能源发展：中国距离实现碳中和还有多远？

ADBI Working Paper Series RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: HOW CLOSE IS THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA TO ACHIEVING CARBON NEUTRALITY? Yao Lixia No. 1438 March 2024 Asian Development Bank Institute The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication. Suggested citation: Lixia, Y. 2024. Renewable Energy Development: How Close is the People’s Republic of China to Achieving Carbon Neutrality? ADBI Working Paper 1438. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available: https://doi.org/10.56506/HXPU5515 Please contact the authors for information about this paper. Email: esiyaol@nus.edu.sg Yao Lixia is a senior research fellow, Energy Security Division, Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms. Discussion papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published. The author gratefully acknowledges the contribution of Phan Dam Quan, a former student of the National University of Singapore, concerning the literature review for this study. Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building, 8th Floor 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan Tel: +81-3-3593-5500 Fax: +81-3-3593-5571 URL: www.adbi.org E-mail: info@adbi.org © 2024 Asian Development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper 1438 Y. Lixia Abstract Goals to mitigate climate change are to be achieved through government strategies and policies, as well as the availability of low-carbon technologies, and are subject to the underlying institutional, political, economic, and other factors that promote or constrain progress and the path taken. A large CO2 emitter, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has set the goals of carbon dioxide emissions peaking by 2030 and achieving greenhouse gas neutrality by 2060. This study reviews the PRC’s efforts to phase out fossil fuels and analyzes the factors that have an impact on the PRC’s renewable energy development and its path towards carbon neutrality. Four factors are found to be critical in the decarbonization of the PRC: the costs of retrofitting existing coal-fired power plants and upgrading the power grid to accommodate renewable energy; institutional factors; technology factors; and market-based schemes. Given these factors and the PRC’s enormous coal-dependent infras