中国电力行业未来： 理解中国碳中和路径和电力行业改革的多模型方法

EEISTPowEr SEcTor fuTurES In chIna a mulTI-modEl aPProach To undErSTandIng chIna’S carbon-nEuTral PaThwayS and PowEr SEcTor rEformlEad auThorS: ArAbellA Miller-WAng1, Hongyu ZHAng2, Pete bArbrook-JoHnson1, yixuAn ZHAng1, PiM Vercoulen3, FeMke niJsse4, yuyAn Weng2, siMon sHArPe6, JeAn-FrAncois Mercure4,7, MicHAel grubb8, xiliAng ZHAng2 1 university of oxford, 2 tsinghua university, 3 cambridge econometrics, 4 university of exeter, 5 unFccc climate champions, 6 World resources institute, 7 World bank, 8 university college londonShort summary of report purpose 2Contents 2Executive summary 41. Introduction 61.1. China’s long-term climate objectives 71.2. China’s power sector 121.3. Public sector and policy 10 2. A multi-model approach to modelling the power sector 142.1. The Renewable Electricity Planning and Operation (REPO) Model 162.2. The E3ME-FTT:Power model 212.3. REPO results – imagining a pathway for China’s power sector 282.4. E3ME-FTT:Power results – the impact of different pricing approaches 362.5. Comparison of REPO and E3ME-FTT: Power results 413. Policy implications 483.1. Market reform of China’s power sector 513.2. Emission Trading System 523.3. Public R&D 533.4. Deployment of renewable energy and storage 54ContentsThis report is jointly published by Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economy (3E) and other partners in the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project. Its purpose is to showcase and compare some of the new economy-energy modelling that 3E and its partners in the EEIST project have conducted on the Chinese power sector. These models are used to explore the power sector’s role in China’s pathway to carbon neutrality and the potential impact of different electricity pricing systems.3AboutThe Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project develops cutting-edge energy innovation analysis to support government decision making around low-carbon innovation and technological change.By engaging with policymakers and stakeholders in Brazil, China, India, the UK and the EU, the project aims to contribute to the economic development of emerging nations and support sustainable development globally.Led by the University of Exeter, EEIST brings together an international team of world-leading research institutions across Brazil, China, India, the UK and the EU.The consortium of institutions are: UK – University of Exeter, University of Oxford, University of Cambridge, University College London, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge Econometrics, Climate Strategies; Brazil – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), University of Brasilia (UNB), University of Campinas (UNICAMP); EU – Scuola Superiore di Studi Universitari e di Perfezionamento Sant’Anna (SSSA); China – Beijing Normal University, Tsinghua University, Energy Research Institute; India – The Energy and Resources Institute, World Resources Institute. The EU partner SSSA cont