德国：热泵在建筑碳中和进程中的重要作用-英

Heat pumps are the key to climate neutrality in buildings. JULY 2023, BERLINInsights from Germany. Ergebnisse auf einen Blick12342Germany aims to reach climate neutrality by 2045. This requires substantial efforts across all sectors. In order to fully decarbonize the buildings sector, scenarios show that about 6 million heat pumps must be installed by 2030. This requires a balanced yet ambitious policy mix.Setting clear targets creates planning certainty for German and European heat pump manufacturers and enables them to invest in new production capacities and business models. This also helps securing European supply chains for this strategic transformation technology.Heat pumps are well suited for existing buildings. They can meet the required heating demand, even in cold winters, and do so at lower operating costs than gas boilers (2022 price ranges). Hybrid heat pumps are usually not a sensible alternative.Additional policy measures to address bottlenecks in installation are needed. This includes strengthening and expanding training programs and disseminating relevant information to key actors, from installers to house owners and energy utilities.Highlight resultsStatus quo: The market for heating technologies is dominated by oil and gas boilersIn order to achieve climate neutrality by 2045, around 500,000 heat pumps must be installed annually by 2024.Prognos, Öko-Institut, Wuppertal-Institut (2021): Klimaneutrales Deutschland 20454Market shares of space heating technologies in GermanyThere are three key levers for decarbonizing the buildings sector in Germany: Large-scale roll-out of heat pumps Raising rate & depth of building renovations Climate-friendly heat grids. The number of heat pumps needed to reach the 2030 climate target for buildings in the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios* is between 3.2 and 6.5 million. The Agora scenario foresees over 6 million heat pumps in 2030.At least 500,000 heat pumps need to be installed each year from 2024 onwards. For comparison: in 2022, market sales of heat pumps were around 236,000 units. *) „Big 5“: Agora KND2045, Ariadne, Dena KN100, BMWK Langfristszenarien, BDI Klimapfade 2.0 Accelerating heat pump adoption in existing buildings is key: the past years‘s trends is moving in the right direction.5Market sales of heat pumps in new and existing buildings in GermanyAgora Energiewende (2022) based on BWP and Destatis (2022)Besides climate protection, heat pumps make a significant contribution to energy security. Agora Energiewende, based on data by the Bundesnetzagentur (Monitoringbericht 2021)6Countries of origin of gas imports to Germany in 2020Since most heat pumps are powered by electricity, which is increasingly renewable and locally generated, heat pumps also make an important contribution to more energy independence. In 2020, around 2/3 of the gas imports to Germany came from Russia. These imports have been gradually replaced by other origins, but high prices and security of supply remain an