《中国的可持续航空燃料——航空业碳中和之路》英文版

September 2023O U R P O I N T O F V I E WSustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in ChinaChecking for Take-off2SAF in China | Check for Take-off© 2023. For information, contact Deloitte China.For the aviation industry to keep growing, it is critical that it reach net zero emissions, but there are key challenges that must be overcome. Aviation is recognized as a “hard-to-abate” sector and SAF is the only commercially viable, near-term mechanism able to reduce the carbon intensity of air travel. Aviation’s pathway to carbon neutralityAviation supports $3.5 trillion (4.1%) of the world’s GDP and accounts for 3% of all global CO2 emissions, but as other sectors decarbonize its contribution could reach 22% of global emissions by 2050. IATA forecasts the biggest growth in passenger numbers will be in Asia Pacific. In 2021, the Chinese domestic passenger market made up 18.9% of global passengersSAF will be aviation’s primary means of decarbonization – as a drop-in fuel there is no need to redesign aircraft or airport infrastructure – but action must focus on scaling production and lowering cost.Sectoral scenarios anticipate that SAF will bring between 50 and 75% of carbon reductions required by aviation in 2050.1Source: ATAG, Scenario 3: aspirational and aggressive technology perspective2050 Net Zero Pathway for Aviation AT A GLANCEAviation and SAF1.ATAG Waypoint 2050 (Link)2SAF in China | Check for Take-off© 2023. For information, contact Deloitte China.3SAF in China | Check for Take-off© 2023. For information, contact Deloitte China.The aviation sector needs to explore and leverage multiple strategies to ensure a timely and successful transitionRelying on business as usual and waiting for new clean technologies to emerge is an inadequate strategyDecarbonization leversDescriptionRole and ChallengeSustainable aviation fuel (SAF)Fuels from sustainable resources to substitute fossil-based keroseneMain decarbonisation option in the next 30 years; ability to use with existing aircraftEfficiency gainsDesign and operational improvements to reduce fuel burn Important option but impact diminishes over timeOffsetsInvestment in out-of-sector emission reductions or removalImportant as other long-term options are scaled upHydrogenCombustion of green hydrogen and/or conversion to electricity through fuel cellsRequires storage and new airframe designs. Long time to develop, ensure safety, certify and deploy at scaleBatteryElectric propulsion with zero emissions if charged with green electricityBattery weight and size limits applicability to short-haul routesBehavioral changeReduction of demand resulting from modal shiftBehavioural change may be outpaced by population and economic growthThe industry, through the International Air Transport Association (IATA)1 and the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), has committed to Net Zero by 2050.2The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) formally recognized that technology and market-based measures will be needed for indu