英文 2023年春季奢侈品全球市场研究

CLAUDIA D’ARPIZIO | FEDERICA LEVATOJUNE 23 , 2023BAIN-ALTAGAMMALUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET STUDY SPRING 2023A thousand winds that blowLuxury players relentlessly adapting toan ever-changing worldThis image has been created by a generative AI• This document contains an update on the luxury goods market, in particular:– Insight to the performance of the market as of year-to-date (mid-June 2023), with higher depth on the first quarter, with details by region, channel, and categories– Estimates for how the luxury market will evolve during FY 2023, with related emerging macrotrends– Bain’s recommendations for how luxury players can steer the next phase of growth• The insights are based on Bain’s triangulation of information and sources, available as of June 23, 2023 and includes:– Data regarding the outbreak of the Covid-19 and consequential lockdown across countries– Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, consumer confidence index) and the latest forecasts– Current trading performance from relevant luxury industry players– Annual reports, quarterly results, and analyst reports– Consensus of 100+ expert interviews• The scenarios do not consider disruptive changes in Covid-19 status quo (e.g., potential future waves of Covid-19 related to variations of the virus) nor in global sociopolitical situationof this documentof this documentForeword on contentand sources“Sortie du temple”DemocratizationChinese AccelerationCrisisRebootNew NormalCovid crisis & reboundRenais-sance (?)Personal luxury posted a record year in 2022 despite TUNA (Turbulence-Uncertainty-Novelty-Ambiguity)T H E P E R S O N A L L U X U R Y G O O D S M A R K E T+23%+19%Current exch. ratesConstant exch. rates'19–‘22 YoY'21–‘22 YoY+19%+12%Current exch. ratesConstant exch. rates'96–’19 CAGR+6%[€B]Growth softening in Q4-22 (yet still double-digit), mostly due to persisting zero-Covid measures in Chinaprimarily due to:2 0 2 2Q1Q2Q3(% growth vs. 2021)China lockdowns2022MayRussia-Ukraine conflict2022FebRestrictive Covid-19 lockdowns in major citiesJapan and South Korea lifted remaining international travel restrictionsSigns of reopenings in Asia 2022SepEnergy crisis reaches peakNatural gas prices in Europe reached their highest point since decades• Persisting zero-Covid policy restrictions in China, hampering reignition of the region and delaying Chinese spending (both locally and internationally)• Reinforced winds of potential recession affecting (mostly) US and (more limitedly) EU’s affluent consumers’ spending behaviorQ 4 - 2 2Q1Q2Q32 0 2 22 0 2 3 E(% growth vs. 2021)(% growth vs. 2022)China lockdowns2022MayRussia-Ukraine conflict2022FebRestrictive Covid-19 lockdowns in major citiesJapan and South Korea lifted remaining international travel restrictions2022OctSigns of reopenings in Asia China ends quarantine for overseas travelers and lifts all zero-Covid policy restrictions2023JanChina lift restrictionsChina reopens borders to foreign tourists, yet major layoffs in tech and manufacturing h