联邦预算展望（英）

THE FEDERAL BUDGET OUTLOOKAlan J. Auerbach and William GaleMARCH 2023ABSTRACTWe examine the federal fiscal outlook in light of the most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections. While CBO projects that the ratio of federal debt to GDP will rise from 98% currently to 195% in 2053 under current law, we show that under current-policy adjustments (including extending the temporary provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), debt would rise to 240% in 2053. Under either projection, debt would be expected to continue to rise thereafter. Interest payments on the debt are projected to rise dramatically and to exceed Social Security or Medicare by 2053. By any measure, the federal budget outlook is unsus-tainable and will eventually require federal action. For example, the current debt-to-GDP ratio could be achieved in 2053 with immediate and permanent spending cuts or tax increases ex-ceeding 3% GDP – equivalent to a one-third increase in the income tax or a one-quarter cut in spending, other than Social Security, Medicare, and interest payments – or with larger chang-es enacted later. Which debt target to choose and how quickly actions are needed will depend on many factors, including the path of interest rates.AUTHOR NOTES AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSAuerbach is the Robert D. Burch Professor of Economics and Law and Director of the Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance at the University of California, Berkeley. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Gale is the Arjay and Fran-ces Fearing Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy at the Brookings Institution and codirector of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. The authors thank Joshua Gotbaum for comments, and Swati Joshi and Nora Cahill for research assistance. Gale thanks Arnold Ventures and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation for generous research support. The views expressed here are solely those of the authors and should not be attributed to any other person or any organiza-tion.DISCLOSURESThe Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports, published online. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.3THE FEDERAL BUDGET OUTLOOKI. Introduction In light of recent economic trends and the most recent Congressional Budget Office projections (CBO 2023), we offer new perspectives on the medium- and long-term fiscal outlook, updating our previous work, most recently in Auerbach and Gale (2022). The basic story is familiar. Low revenues coupled with rising outlays on health-related programs and Social Security drive permanent, rising primary deficits as a share of the economy. Net interest payments also rise substantially relative to GDP due to high pre-existing debt, rising primary deficits, and gradually