纺织服装行业双周报：关注制造端订单的拐点

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 纺织服装行业 Textiles & Apparel Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Textiles & Apparel Sector 中文版 Hansen Tang 汤瀚森 行业报告： 纺织服装行业 Chinese version (86755) 2397 6884 hansen.tang@gtjas.com.hk 13 February 2023 [Table_MainInfo] Bi-Weekly Update: Focus Is on the Turning Point of Manufacturing Orders 双周报：关注制造端订单的拐点  We believe that the recent rise in stock prices of sportswear companies in the Hong Kong stock market largely factored in optimistic market expectation on consumption recovery in 2023. According to our channel check, retail sales growth of some major apparel brands showed encouraging YoY performance since Jan. 2023, among which sportswear and premium menswear brands outperformed. Thanks to robust sales during the Spring Festival holiday, destocking of some apparel brands has been relatively smooth as optimization of aging structure of inventory continued, pushing inventory levels of some brands back to healthy levels. We expect that, as offline consumer traffic flow normalizes, earnings of leading sportswear companies in 2023 will become more visible and may see upward revisions to earnings forecasts.  The turning point of manufacturing orders is on the way. Domestic sales front: customers of domestic apparel brand companies tend to place orders cautiously due to Covid disruptions in 2022. Strong retail sales performance since Jan. 2023 (especially during the Spring Festival) is expected to enhance the confidence of downstream customers in placing orders. We expect orders for domestic sales to recover gradually. Export sales front: Although manufacturing orders have been depressed since 2H2022 due to high overseas inventories and inflation, both issues are marginally easing. We expect a turning point in overseas orders for textile manufacturing companies in 2Q2023.  Maintain "Outperform" rating for the textiles and apparel sector. Investors should keep focusing on investment opportunities on 1) China's leading sportswear companies, 2) leading suppliers with long-term competitive edge and 3) some apparel brand companies with low valuations. We recommend Shenzhou International (02313 HK), Li Ning (02331 HK), Anta Sports (02020 HK), Xtep (01368 HK), 361 Degrees (01361 HK) and Topsports (06110 HK), and suggest to accumulate on dips.  Risks: 1) Prolonged Covid pandemic; 2) higher-than-expected global inflation; 3) slower-than-expected destocking pace; 4) increase in raw material prices. Increase in raw material prices 我们认为近期港股运动服饰公司的股价上涨在很大程度上已反映市场对 2023 年消费复苏的乐观预期。根据我们渠道调研，自 2023 年 1 月以来，一些主要服装品牌的零售流水同比增速表现令人鼓舞，其中运动服饰和中高端男装领跑行业。受益于春节假期销售强劲，部分服装品牌去库存过程相对顺利，库龄结构持续优化，部分品牌库存水平已回归健康水平。我们认为随着线下消费客流逐步正常化，龙头运动服饰公司 2023 年的盈利能见度